The exploitation of the common whelk (Buccinum undatum L.) has become an integral part of commercial fisheries in both Jersey and French waters. Since 2004 declining catches have been reported, and it has been suggested that existing management measures may not be effective. This study reports a further 8 years of annual monitoring of whelk catches from 2003 to 2011, using identical methodology and analysis as previous work. Jersey commercial whelk fishermen's logbook returns from 2007 to 2011, were also analysed for changes in effort and catch. Average catch per unit effort (CPUE) dropped by 36.7% from 3.3 kg per pot to 2.09 kg per pot. Since 2007, Fishermen's reported landings per unit effort for whelks, also dropped from 2.12 kg per pot to 1.75 kg per pot. Whilst a decline in catch rates of whelks greater than 44 mm shell length was reported earlier, this study also found catch rates for smaller whelks (<44 mm shell length) had declined by 54.5% from 0.44 kg per pot to 0.2 kg per pot, suggesting the start of possible recruitment overfishing. We found no statistical significance (repeated measures ANOVA) between the sample station grouping of ‘fished’ and ‘non-fished’, as reported previously, for either the small fraction or large fraction of the catch, both of which showed declines in CPUE. Analysis of fishermen's logbook returns showed that effort had varied over time and between statistical reporting areas. It is suggested that, given changes in fishing effort, an earlier grouping of fishing intensity is no longer relevant and we discuss the pitfalls of using such classifications and other arbitrary boundaries for spatial analyses which are then relied upon in making spatial planning and fisheries management decisions. More detailed spatial observations on fishing effort and trans-national sharing of data, along with relevant choices in joint management measures are required for the future sustainability of local whelk stocks.
A theoretical model of structure and functioning was constructed for the Mediterranean undersea cave ecosystem. This model integrates almost all representative components of the cave ecosystem and gives an idea of their faunal compositions, characteristics and related interactions.
This model constitutes the basis of the Ecosystem-Based Quality Index (EBQI) of the European Union's Marine Strategy Framework Directive, which aims at evaluating the ecological quality of an ecosystem. It is based on four crucial complementary elements: (i) each component was weighted in accordance with its importance in determining the structure and functioning of the cave ecosystem; (ii) a suite of relevant parameters were defined to assess the ecological state of each component of the cave ecosystem; (iii) these parameters were aggregated into one relevant index, the Cave EBQI (CavEBQI), to summarize the quality evaluation for each cave site; (iv) each value of ecological state is accompanied by a Confidence Index as a measure of its reliability.
The CavEBQI was used on 22 Mediterranean undersea caves of France and Italy. Disparities of ecological quality were found among caves but most of them ranged from moderate to high ecological quality. For some caves, no conclusion can be drawn when our method predicts a poor reliability of the evaluation of their ecological quality.
This ecosystem-based evaluation of the quality of undersea caves seems to be a powerful tool, with the advantage of being based on almost all its components, rather than just on a few species. It is accompanied by a measure of its reliability, hence it provides a reliable idea of the ecological state of the entire ecosystem at each cave site. Monitoring the ecological state of caves and the effects of disturbances over large geographic and temporal scales is made possible with CavEBQI. Applying the same method to other ecosystems, can provide an integrated view of a marine region, which is essential when addressing questions about protection, conservation and restoration.
This contribution investigates the impact of the deployment of tidal stream turbine arrays on sediment dynamics and seabed morphology in the Pentland Firth, Scotland. The Pentland Firth is arguably the premier tidal stream site in the world and engineering developments are progressing rapidly. Therefore understanding and minimising impacts is vital to ensure the successful development of this nascent industry. Here a 3 dimensional coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport numerical model is used to investigate the impact on sediment transport and morphodynamics of tidal stream arrays. The aim of the work presented here is twofold: firstly to provide prediction of the changes caused by multiple tidal stream turbine array developments to some of the unique sandy seabed environments in the Pentland Firth and secondly as a case study to determine the relationship between impacts of individual tidal stream farms and cumulative impacts of multiple farms. Due to connectivity in tidal flow it has been hypothesized that the cumulative impact of multiple arrays on sediment dynamics might be non-linear. This work suggests that, for the Pentland Firth, this is not the case: the cumulative impact of the 4 currently proposed arrays in the area is equal to the sum of the impacts of the individual arrays. Additionally, array implementation only has minimal effect on the baseline morphodynamics of the large sandbanks in the region, smaller more local sandbanks were not considered. These two results are extremely positive for tidal stream developers in the region since it removes the burden of assessing cumulative impact from individual developers and suggests that impacts to sub-sea morphodynamics is insignificant and hence is unlikely to be an impediment to development in the Pentland Firth with the currently proposed levels of extraction.
Biodiversity is globally recognised as a cornerstone of healthy ecosystems, and biodiversity conservation is increasingly becoming one of the important aims of environmental management. Evaluating the trade-offs of alternative management strategies requires quantitative estimates of the costs and benefits of their outcomes, including the value of biodiversity lost or preserved. This paper takes a decision-analytic standpoint, and reviews and discusses the alternative aspects of biodiversity valuation by dividing them into three categories: socio-cultural, economic, and ecological indicator approaches. We discuss the interplay between these three perspectives and suggest integrating them into an ecosystem-based management (EBM) framework, which permits us to acknowledge ecological systems as a rich mixture of interactive elements along with their social and economic aspects. In this holistic framework, socio-cultural preferences can serve as a tool to identify the ecosystem services most relevant to society, whereas monetary valuation offers more globally comparative and understandable values. Biodiversity indicators provide clear quantitative measures and information about the role of biodiversity in the functioning and health of ecosystems. In the multi-objective EBM approach proposed in the paper, biodiversity indicators serve to define threshold values (i.e., the minimum level required to maintain a healthy environment). An appropriate set of decision-making criteria and the best method for conducting the decision analysis depend on the context and the management problem in question. Therefore, we propose a sequence of steps to follow when quantitatively evaluating environmental management against biodiversity.
In-situ signage is a cost effective environmental education tool used in marine protected area (MPA) management, and the design and location of signage is crucial to attract the attention of targeted audiences. The implementation of multiple-use MPAs increases the challenges of communicating awareness of MPA boundaries and permitted activities. Currently, little is known about how effective signage in multiple-use MPAs is in communicating information to stakeholders that will promote supportive attitudes and behaviours towards MPAs. This study evaluated the usefulness of in-situ signage in an existing multiple-use MPA, to determine if signs pertaining to the MPA captured the attention of recreational users, and provided adequate information. Structured interviews with recreational fishers, divers, and other users, were used to determine users׳ awareness of being in an MPA, their awareness of management objectives and associated zoning scheme, together with levels of agreement or disagreement on whether or not current in-situ signage adequately communicates information about the MPA. It was evident that the types and accessibility of in-situ signs in the MPA may not be effective at capturing the attention of intended audiences and providing relevant information, with the exception of signs located at the dive site, due to their design, size, and placement. Awareness differed among the three user groups, together with their views on the effectiveness of signage. Many recreational fishers believed existing signage was inadequate and unclear, and expressed frustrations with the complexity of zoning rules and location of their boundaries. Based on this study, recommendations about the presentation, content, and placement of signage relative to access points, and information required by MPA users, is provided.
Biologists have long recognized environmental disturbances impact both the growth of renewable resources and the efficiency of harvest effort. However, models of renewable resource management under uncertainty have commonly assumed economic and biological uncertainties to be uncorrelated. We present examples of valuable fish species that experience correlated variation in biological growth and catchability, in response to a common environmental disturbance. Building correlation into a model of renewable resource management under uncertainty, we find correlation to alter the optimal response by managers to cost disturbances, and impact the value of retaining intra-period flexibility over harvest targets. Examining the performance of three harvest control mechanisms—harvest quotas, effort quotas, and taxes—reveals that positive correlation between costs and growth favors harvest quotas over effort quotas, and effort quotas over taxes (and vice versa). The model is then applied numerically to the Pacific bigeye tuna fishery, which experiences positively correlated shocks driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Correlation qualitatively changes the optimal response to a cost shock, and harvest quotas are found to be strongly favored over both effort quotas and taxes.
Since the first limited entry Bristol Bay drift and set gillnet permits were issued in 1975, many local residents have sold their permits to non-resident fishermen. Declining local permit ownership destabilizes the main economic base of the region. Previous studies have documented the decline of locally owned permits and have proposed social and economic hypotheses that could explain why local permit ownership is declining in limited entry fisheries in Alaska. To stem the outward flow of permits, the Bristol Bay Economic Development Corporation operates a Permit Loan Program to assist Bristol Bay watershed residents in buying permits. Despite its generous benefits, it has reversed the decline in local permit ownership. This paper examines why residents enter or exit the fishery. Hypotheses on permit retention were tested through interviews with Bristol Bay fishery participants. Interviewees indicate stronger cultural and familial ties than economic factors to fishing. As local permit ownership has declined, these ties are being lost, leading to declining interest in the fishery. Commercial fishing is a competitive and costly enterprise. Successful participants in the fisheries, especially the drift gillnet fishery, are financially savvy with supplemental non-fishing income that outcompete residents by catching most of the fish. The Bristol Bay Economic Development Corporation Permit Loan Program appears unable to stop the local loss of permits. There are no obvious ways to expand local permit ownership and retaining local permits remains a major challenge for the region. However, it is important for local residents to participate in the fishery because it keeps communities economically and socially healthy, gives residents access to their local resources and strengthens their voice in managing their local resources.
Managing marine ecosystems to promote natural functioning and provide for sustainable use is a necessary complement to formal conservation in protected areas. Because the area for conservation and resources for management are limited, both sites and actions need to be prioritized. Sandy beaches are poorly recognised as ecosystems, and thus are neither well managed nor regularly included in conservation initiatives, and are highly threatened. Therefore, we aim to refine an existing cumulative threat assessment (CTA) for beach ecosystems, the outputs of which can inform prioritization of beaches for conservation in reserves and/or various management objectives beyond reserves. We focus on the latter, using the CTA to derive a decision-support tool that aims to provide for use of sandy shores, whilst ensuring their ecological functioning is not compromised. The CTA depends on expert-based scores of threats to ecosystems; these were determined at the VIth International Sandy Beach Symposium (2012) for a baseline scenario under two criteria: functional impact and recovery time. Application of the CTA and decision-support tool is illustrated using the South African beaches. The baseline threat scores were adapted to suit the local context, and spatial trends in the cumulative impact of 15 threats were quantified. South African beaches are exposed to a broad range of cumulative pressure: overall it is relatively low, except where beaches are associated with areas of intensive coastal development. Based on the degree of permanent modification of the shore, and cumulative impact of all other stressors, the decision-support tool classifies beaches as: social-priority areas; ecological-priority areas; or social-ecological areas, each with specific management objectives.
An assessment of hazard stemming from operational oil ship discharges in the Southern Adriatic and Northern Ionian (SANI) Seas is presented. The methodology integrates ship traffic data, the fate and transport oil spill model MEDSLIK-II, coupled with the Mediterranean Forecasting System (MFS) ocean currents, sea surface temperature analyses and ECMWF surface winds. Monthly and climatological hazard maps were calculated for February 2009 through April 2013. Monthly hazard distributions of oil show that the zones of highest sea surface hazard are located in the southwestern Adriatic Sea and eastern Ionian Sea. Distinctive “hot spots” appear in front of the Taranto Port and the sea area between Corfu Island and the Greek coastlines. Beached oil hazard maps indicate the highest values in the Taranto Port area, on the eastern Greek coastline, as well as in the Bari Port area and near Brindisi Port area.
Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) aims to promote sustainable management of coastal zones based on ecosystem and holistic management approaches. In this context, policies have to consider the complex interactions that influence the fragile equilibrium of coastal ecosystems. Beaches represent both valuable and vulnerable natural resources because of the various ecosystem services they provide and their sensitivity to climate change and sea level rise.
We present the first comprehensive digital record of all Black Sea beaches and provide a rapid assessment of their erosion risk under different scenarios of sea level rise. Through the digitisation of freely available remote-sensed images on the web, we provide broad information on the spatial characteristics and other attributes of all Black Sea beaches (e.g. photo-based visual estimation of the sediment type, presence of coastal defences, urban development). These data have been assembled and stored in full Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) – allowing spatial queries, visualisation and data sharing – and are therefore particularly interesting to feed/supply web-GIS portals (coastal atlases) for visualisation purpose, spatial queries or spatial indicators calculations.
The resulting Black Sea beaches database contains 1228 beaches, with a total coastline length of 2042 km with an area of 224 km2. The majority of the Black Sea beaches have been found to have small widths (61% have maximum widths less than 50 m), whereas 47% of all beaches presented coastal defence schemes, suggesting an already serious beach erosion problem.
The erosion risk of the Black Sea beaches was assessed through the comparison of their maximum widths with estimations of the sea level rise-induced retreat by an ensemble of six 1-D analytical and numerical morphodynamic models. Following more than 17,000 experiments using different combinations of wave conditions, beach sediment textures and slopes and 11 scenarios of sea level rise (up to 2 m), the means (best fits) of the lowest and highest projections by the model ensemble were estimated; these were then compared to the maximum widths of the Black Sea beaches. The analysis showed that sea level rise will have highly significant impacts on the Black Sea beaches, as for a 0.5 m sea level rise 56% of all beaches are projected to retreat by 50% of their maximum width. For a 0.82 m sea level rise (the high IPCC estimate for the period 2081–2100) about 41% are projected to retreat by their entire maximum width, whereas for 1 m sea level rise about 51% of all Black Sea beaches are projected to retreat by (drowned or shifted landward by) their entire maximum width, if the high mean of the model ensemble projections is used.
Results substantiate the risk of beach erosion as a major environmental problem along the Black Sea coast, which therefore needs to be taken into account in any future coastal management plans, as a matter of urgency. As these scenarios consider only sea level rise, they are considered to be conservative. Although the present results cannot replace detailed studies, the database and projections may assist Black Sea coastal managers and policy makers to rapidly identify beaches with increased risk of erosion, valuate accordingly coastal assets and infrastructure, estimate beach capacity for touristic development purposes, and rapidly assess direct and indirect costs and benefits of beach protection options. They also provide the necessary inputs to advance discussions relevant to the Black Sea ICZM.
The Mediterranean Sea (MS) is a semienclosed basin that is considered one of the most oligotrophic seas in the world. In such an environment, inputs of allochthonous nutrients and micronutrients play an important role in sustaining primary productivity. Atmospheric deposition and riverine runoff have been traditionally considered the main external sources of nutrients to the MS, whereas the role of submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) has been largely ignored. However, given the large Mediterranean shore length relative to its surface area, SGD may be a major conveyor of dissolved compounds to the MS. Here, we used a 228Ra mass balance to demonstrate that the total SGD contributes up to (0.3–4.8)⋅1012 m3⋅y−1 to the MS, which appears to be equal or larger by a factor of 16 to the riverine discharge. SGD is also a major source of dissolved inorganic nutrients to the MS, with median annual fluxes of 190⋅109, 0.7⋅109, and 110⋅109 mol for nitrogen, phosphorous, and silica, respectively, which are comparable to riverine and atmospheric inputs. This corroborates the profound implications that SGD may have for the biogeochemical cycles of the MS. Inputs of other dissolved compounds (e.g., iron, carbon) via SGD could also be significant and should be investigated.
Indicators are essential tools for policy making, public communication and the provision of scientific advice. In fisheries science, indicators have been increasingly used to advising on fish and shellfish stock management, especially since the precautionary approach to fisheries management was developed. They are now becoming a cornerstone of the wider ecosystem approach to the management of all human activities. In this section, we provide some recent examples of methods we developed for creating and selecting pressure indicators and ecological indicators derived from different types of information (scientific survey data, commercial fisheries data) for a range of ecosystems, covering pelagic, demersal and deep-water systems.
Estuaries and coastal zones reflect conflicting processes due to their positions at the interface between terrestrial and marine environments. The estuary of the Seine is an example of such a continuum and is affected by numerous human activities. Although degradation started in the middle of nineteenth century, the Seine estuary remains an important area for biodiversity as well for the food web involving fish and birds. The estuary area has been affected by intense historic anthropogenic pressures and, more recently, by new human activities, including harbour extension, aggregate extraction and the development of offshore wind farms. Nowadays, harbour projects continue to highlight the existing ecological compartments and are still studied independently. French and European regulations, including reforms of the harbour status, should ensure a better integration of natural heritage protection into the integrated coastal zone management process. However, there is a paradox between the declaration of the French state, which encourages a global management plan for the Seine Estuary, and sectoral territorial approaches adopted by the managers. This paper presents an analysis of the current contrasted situation in the administration of territories, which favours sectoral management rather than a unique ecosystem-based management process.
In response to the global movement for establishing MPAs and MPA networks, such as the CBD COP decisions, Japan defined the MPAs and decided to promote their establishment. The Ministry of the Environment formulated its “Marine Biodiversity Conservation Strategy” in 2011, which specified the definition of MPAs in Japan, along with the existing systems that can be regarded as MPAs. The purposes of the existing systems can be categorized into three groups: (1) protection of natural scenery, (2) protection of natural environment or habitats, and (3) protection and cultivation of fishery resources. The regulations imposed in each area depend on the purpose, but they regulate either development activities, taking designated species (e.g., endangered species), or fishery activities. One distinctive character of in Japan that MPAs regulate fishery activities is that the fishery is managed by the resource users themselves. Accordingly, local fishers are engaged not only in fishery operations but also in resource management (e.g., resource assessment and setting individual catch quota) and ecosystem conservation (e.g., maintaining seaweed beds and coral reefs). There is a controversy as to whether some MPAs can really be regarded as MPAs. As stated in the “National Biodiversity Strategy of Japan 2012–2020,” it is important to consider standards and methods for evaluating the effects of marine protected areas from the biodiversity standpoint.
Marine protected areas (MPAs) were created in reaction to large-scale disturbance that humankind has caused to the equilibrium, productivity, and production of marine ecology. This chapter considers some specific characteristics of different types of MPAs. It attempts to assess how the protection of these areas allows them to return to close to their original state after disturbance. It also attempts to discern the ways in which societies whose existence or activities depend on these protected areas may adapt their total conservation or use the environment more or less aggressively.
The creation, existence, and maintenance of these new marine areas induces greater control of their condition, and new coastal environment laws have led to the creation of new activities and professions.
Human societies are beginning to implement new technical and legal methods of control. They must realize the maintenance of ecosystem quality through new approaches. Finally, they must consider that these new activities must be integrated into the functioning of natural marine ecosystems and that additional resources should be allocated to these new missions.
Ocean acidification is a global, long-term problem whose ultimate solution requires carbon dioxide reduction at a scope and scale that will take decades to accomplish successfully. Until that is achieved, feasible and locally relevant adaptation and mitigation measures are needed. To help to prioritize societal responses to ocean acidification, we present a spatially explicit, multidisciplinary vulnerability analysis of coastal human communities in the United States. We focus our analysis on shelled mollusc harvests, which are likely to be harmed by ocean acidification. Our results highlight US regions most vulnerable to ocean acidification (and why), important knowledge and information gaps, and opportunities to adapt through local actions. The research illustrates the benefits of integrating natural and social sciences to identify actions and other opportunities while policy, stakeholders and scientists are still in relatively early stages of developing research plans and responses to ocean acidification.
The Gulf of Mexico is one of the most ecologically and economically valuable marine ecosystems in the world and is affected by a variety of natural and anthropogenic phenomena including climate, hurricanes, coastal development, agricultural runoff, oil spills, and fishing. These complex and interacting stressors, together with the highly dynamic nature of this ecosystem, present challenges for the effective management of its resources. We analyze a compilation of over 100 indicators representing physical, biological, and economic aspects of the Gulf of Mexico and find that an ecosystem-wide reorganization occurred in the mid-1990s. Further analysis of fishery landings composition data indicates a major shift in the late 1970s coincident with the advent of US national fisheries management policy, as well as significant shifts in the mid-1960s and the mid-1990s. These latter shifts are aligned temporally with changes in a major climate mode in the Atlantic Ocean: the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). We provide an explanation for how the AMO may drive physical changes in the Gulf of Mexico, thus altering higher-level ecosystem dynamics. The hypotheses presented here should provide focus for further targeted studies, particularly in regard to whether and how management should adjust to different climate regimes or states of nature. Our study highlights the challenges in understanding the effects of climatic drivers against a background of multiple anthropogenic pressures, particularly in a system where these forces interact in complex and nonlinear ways.
The North Sea is one of the most industrialised seas in the world. While ships queue to progress through its southern channels, navigable space allocated to wind farms could, according to some estimates, increase fifty-fold within just a few years. At the same time, it is essential to develop coherent networks of environmentally protected areas and engage in the European Commission's long term plan to support sustainable economic growth in the marine sectors.
We discovered that there is no single map or database plotting the various, often conflicting, uses of the Sea. Data are not in short supply, but duplication of effort wastes resources and means that the most value is not being derived from what is available. We conclude that there is an urgent need to commit to a properly resourced single cross-border data collection initiative. If appropriately funded, the evolving European Marine Observation and Data network could fulfil this function.
Tensions in the marine environment, both between contrasting environmental and economic objectives and between different economic users, can be managed through effective planning. Such planning is embryonic and unpredictable around the North Sea. The UK Government should initiate longer term strategic planning for the seas around the UK coastline, along the lines of the Dutch North Sea 2050 Agenda.
There are also substantial regulatory tensions. Different countries around the North Sea, for example, take different approaches to defining the environmental quality of their parts of the basin. The European Commission should improve guidance on the implementation of relevant EU law. As the responsibility for the marine environment lies at a local, an EU and an international level, we urge the UK Government to work with English local authorities to identify and address barriers to their co-operation with other authorities around the North Sea.
Current co-operation initiatives demonstrate that consistent political leadership is required in order for co-operation to flourish. It is also clear from experience that co-operation can deliver efficiencies and enable limited resources to go further. Cross-border energy co-operation in the North Sea has enormous potential, but regulatory barriers remain and we recommend that the Government work to overcome these. Co-operation in fisheries management has been furthered by the new responsibilities given to the Advisory Councils, but there is insufficient funding available for the enhanced role. We recommend that the UK Government consider how it can support the Advisory Councils to fulfil their duties. We also recommend that the European Commission publish guidance on the wider funding opportunities that exist to stimulate greater co-operation across all sectors.
Successful future marine co-operation in the North Sea region will require strong and effective political leadership. We recommend that the UK Government co-operate with other North Sea Member States to develop the pilot marine planning project that was proposed to us by the German government. This should lead the way towards the effective implementation of the Maritime Spatial Planning Directive and contribute to proactive planning on the part of Member States. We support the idea of a North Sea Maritime Forum to bring the full range of stakeholders together in an atmosphere of collaboration, but note that strong political leadership is still lacking.
We conclude that no existing body or mechanism has a broad enough remit to facilitate the political co-operation required to make the necessary step-change in the management of the North Sea basin. We recommend therefore, that the UK Government convene a North Sea ministerial conference in order to develop a holistic approach to all economic and environmental issues affecting the North Sea. Importantly, the conference should seek to deliver the urgently required political and strategic vision which will sustain this precious resource and secure it for future generations.
Scientists often lament their lack of influence on environmental policy-making. Some proposed solutions, like teaching scientists to communicate more effectively, can be helpful, but are not necessarily sufficient. Instead, connecting science and policy may often require a separate kind of expert: full-time intermediaries who facilitate the complicated exchange of information among scientists, policy-makers, and other stakeholders. In this paper, we describe intermediary efforts by the Lenfest Ocean Program, a grant-making program that funds peer-reviewed research and connects scientists and decision-makers who can take action on an issue. We present case studies of intermediary work on three topics: first, sustainable methods of harvesting bull kelp in the US Pacific Northwest; second, the design of catch share programs in US fisheries; and third, management of forage fish. These case studies suggest that science–policy intermediaries can help scientists make meaningful contributions to public discourse.
Understanding the implications of different management strategies is necessary to identify best conservation trajectories for ecosystems exposed to anthropogenic stressors. For example, science-based risk assessments at large scales are needed to understand efficacy of different vector management approaches aimed at preventing biological invasions associated with commercial shipping. We conducted a landscape-scale analysis to examine the relative invasion risk of ballast water discharges among different shipping pathways (e.g., Transoceanic, Coastal or Domestic), ecosystems (e.g., freshwater, brackish and marine), and timescales (annual and per discharge event) under current and future management regimes. The arrival and survival potential of nonindigenous species (NIS) was estimated based on directional shipping networks and their associated propagule pressure, environmental similarity between donor-recipient ecosystems (based on salinity and temperature), and effects of current and future management strategies (i.e., ballast water exchange and treatment to meet proposed international biological discharge standards). Our findings show that current requirements for ballast water exchange effectively reduce invasion risk to freshwater ecosystems but are less protective of marine ecosystems because of greater environmental mismatch between source (oceanic) and recipient (freshwater) ecoregions. Future requirements for ballast water treatment are expected to reduce risk of zooplankton NIS introductions across ecosystem types but are expected to be less effective in reducing risk of phytoplankton NIS. This large-scale risk assessment across heterogeneous ecosystems represents a major step towards understanding the likelihood of invasion in relation to shipping networks, the relative efficacy of different invasion management regimes and seizing opportunities to reduce the ecological and economic implications of biological invasions.