Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change

Last modified: 
August 30, 2016 - 8:00am
Type: Journal Article
Year of publication: 2015
Date published: 06/2015
Authors: S. Nicol, R. Fuller, T. Iwamura, I. Chades
Journal title: Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
Volume: 282
Issue: 1808
ISSN: 0962-8452

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian–Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25 000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future.

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