Multidisciplinary, integrated ocean observing programs provide critical data for monitoring the effects of climate change on marine ecosystems. California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) samples along the US West Coast and is one of the world’s longest-running and most comprehensive time series, with hydrographic and biological data collected since 1949. The pairing of ecological and physical measurements across this long time series informs our understanding of how the California Current marine ecosystem responds to climate variability. By providing a baseline to monitor change, the CalCOFI time series serves as a Keeling Curve for the California Current. However, challenges remain in connecting the data collected from long-term monitoring programs with the needs of stakeholders concerned with climate change adaptation (i.e., resource managers, policy makers, and the public), including for the fisheries and aquaculture sectors. We use the CalCOFI program as a case study to ask: how can long-term ocean observing programs inform ecosystem based management efforts and create data flows that meet the needs of stakeholders working on climate change adaptation? Addressing this question and identifying solutions requires working across sectors and recognizing stakeholder needs. Lessons learned from CalCOFI can inform other regional monitoring programs around the world, including those done at a smaller scale in developing countries.
Climate Change, Ocean Acidification, and Ocean Warming
There has been wide interest in Marine Heatwaves and their ecological consequences in recent years. Most analyses have focused on remotely sensed sea surface temperature data due to the temporal and spatial coverage it provides in order to establish the presence and duration of Heatwaves. Using hydrographic data from a variety of sources, we show that an advective Marine Heatwave was initiated by an event in late December of 2016 south of New England, with temperature anomalies measuring up to 6°C and salinity anomalies exceeding 1 PSU. Similar features were observed off of New Jersey in February 2017, and are associated with the Shelfbreak Front migrating from its normal position to mid-shelf or further onshore. Shelf water of 34 PSU was observed just north of Cape Hatteras at the 30 m isobath and across the continental shelf in late April 2017. These observations reveal that the 2017 Marine Heatwave was associated with a strong positive salinity anomaly, that its total duration was approximately 4 months, and its advective path extended roughly 850 km along the length of the continental shelf in the Middle Atlantic Bight. The southward advective velocity implied by the arrival north of Cape Hatteras is consistent with previous estimates of alongshelf velocity for the region. The origin of this Marine Heatwave is likely related to cross-shelf advection driven by the presence of a Warm Core Ring adjacent to the shelfbreak south of New England.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs), or prolonged periods of anomalously warm sea water temperature, have been increasing in duration and intensity globally for decades. However, there are many coastal, oceanic, polar, and sub-surface regions where our ability to detect MHWs is uncertain due to limited high quality data. Here, we investigate the effect that short time series length, missing data, or linear long-term temperature trends may have on the detection of MHWs. We show that MHWs detected in time series as short as 10 years did not have durations or intensities appreciably different from events detected in a standard 30 year long time series. We also show that the output of our MHW algorithm for time series missing less than 25% data did not differ appreciably from a complete time series, and that the level of allowable missing data could cautiously be increased to 50% when gaps were filled by linear interpolation. Finally, linear long-term trends of 0.10°C/decade or greater added to a time series caused larger changes (increases) to the count and duration of detected MHWs than shortening a time series to 10 years or missing more than 25% of the data. The long-term trend in a time series has the largest effect on the detection of MHWs and has the largest range in added uncertainty in the results. Time series length has less of an effect on MHW detection than missing data, but adds a larger range of uncertainty to the results. We provide suggestions for best practices to improve the accuracy of MHW detection with sub-optimal time series and show how the accuracy of these corrections may change regionally.
Shallow water coral reefs and deep sea coral communities are sensitive to current and future environmental stresses, such as changes in sea surface temperatures (SST), salinity, carbonate chemistry, and acidity. Over the last half-century, some reef communities have been disappearing at an alarming pace. This study focuses on the Gulf of Mexico, where the majority of shallow coral reefs are reported to be in poor or fair condition. We analyze the RCP8.5 ensemble of the Community Earth System Model v1.2 to identify monthly-to-decadal trends in Gulf of Mexico SST. Secondly, we examine projected changes in ocean pH, carbonate saturation state, and salinity in the same coupled model simulations. We find that the joint impacts of predicted higher temperatures and changes in ocean acidification will severely degrade Gulf of Mexico reef systems by the end of the twenty-first century. SSTs are likely to warm by 2.5–3°C; while corals do show signs of an ability to adapt toward higher temperatures, current coral species and reef systems are likely to suffer major bleaching events in coming years. We contextualize future changes with ancient reefs from paleoclimate analogs, periods of Earth's past that were also exceptionally warm, specifically rapid “hyperthermal” events. Ancient analog events are often associated with extinctions, reef collapse, and significant ecological changes, yet reef communities managed to survive these events on evolutionary timescales. Finally, we review research which discusses the adaptive potential of the Gulf of Mexico's coral reefs, meccas of biodiversity and oceanic health. We assert that the only guaranteed solution for long-term conservation and recovery is substantial, rapid reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
Enrichment of the oceans with CO2 may be beneficial for some marine phytoplankton, including harmful algae. Numerous laboratory experiments provided valuable insights into the effects of elevated pCO2 on the growth and physiology of harmful algal species, including the production of phycotoxins. Experiments close to natural conditions are the next step to improve predictions, as they consider the complex interplay between biotic and abiotic factors that can confound the direct effects of ocean acidification. We therefore investigated the effect of ocean acidification on the occurrence and abundance of phycotoxins in bulk plankton samples during a long-term mesocosm experiment in the Gullmar Fjord, Sweden, an area frequently experiencing harmful algal blooms. During the experimental period, a total of seven phycotoxin-producing harmful algal genera were identified in the fjord, and in accordance, six toxin classes were detected. However, within the mesocosms, only domoic acid and the corresponding producer Pseudo-nitzschia spp. was observed. Despite high variation within treatments, significantly higher particulate domoic acid contents were measured in the mesocosms with elevated pCO2. Higher particulate domoic acid contents were additionally associated with macronutrient limitation. The risks associated with potentially higher phycotoxin levels in the future ocean warrants attention and should be considered in prospective monitoring strategies for coastal marine waters.
As ocean acidification (OA) sensor technology develops and improves, in situ deployment of such sensors is becoming more widespread. However, the scientific value of these data depends on the development and application of best practices for calibration, validation, and quality assurance as well as on further development and optimization of the measurement technologies themselves. Here, we summarize the results of a 2-day workshop on OA sensor best practices held in February 2018, in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada, drawing on the collective experience and perspectives of the participants. The workshop on in situ Sensors for OA Research was organized around three basic questions: 1) What are the factors limiting the precision, accuracy and reliability of sensor data? 2) What can we do to facilitate the quality assurance/quality control (QA/QC) process and optimize the utility of these data? and 3) What sort of data or metadata are needed for these data to be most useful to future users? A synthesis of the discussion of these questions among workshop participants and conclusions drawn is presented in this paper.
Ice arches in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) block the inflow of Arctic Ocean ice for the majority of the year. A 22‐year record (1997‐2018) of Arctic Ocean‐CAA ice exchange was used to investigate the effect of warming on CAA sea ice dynamics. Larger ice area flux values were associated with longer flow duration and faster ice speed facilitated by increased open water leeway from the CAA's transition to a younger and thinner ice regime, that together have contributed to a significant ice area flux increase (103 km2/year) from Arctic Ocean into the northern CAA from 1997‐2018. Remarkably, the 2016 Arctic Ocean ice area flux into the CAA (161x103 km2) was 7 times greater than the 1997‐2018 average (23x103 km2) and almost double the 2007 ice area flux into Nares Strait (87x103 km2). Continued warming may result in the CAA becoming a larger outlet for Arctic Ocean ice area loss.
The scientific literature on marine and coastal climate change has proliferated in recent decades. Translating and communicating this evidence in a timely, and accessible manner, is critical to support adaptation, but little is being done to summarise the latest science for decision makers. For Small Island Developing States (SIDS), which are highly vulnerable to marine and coastal climate change impacts, there is an urgent need to make the latest science readily available to inform national policy, leverage climate funding and highlight their vulnerability for international reports and climate negotiations. Climate change report cards are a proven successful way of presenting climate change information in an easily accessible and informative manner. Here we compare the development of marine climate change report cards for Caribbean and Pacific Commonwealth SIDS as a means of translating the latest science for decision makers. Regional engagement, priority issues and lessons learnt in these regions are compared, and future opportunities identified.
Multiple lines of evidence, ranging from time series field observations to climate change stimulation experiments demonstrate the negative effects of global warming and ocean acidification (OA) on bivalve molluscs. The impact of global warming on bivalve aquaculture has recently been reviewed. However, the impact of OA on bivalve aquaculture has received relatively less attention. Although there are many reports on the effects of OA on bivalves, this information is poorly organized and the connection between OA and bivalve aquaculture is unclear. Therefore, understanding the potential impact of acidification on ecosystems and bivalve aquaculture is of prime importance. Here, we provide a comprehensive scientific review of the impact of OA on bivalves and propose mitigation measures for future bivalve farming. This information will help to establish aquaculture and fisheries management plans to be implemented in commercial fisheries and nature conservation. In general, scientific evidence suggests that OA threatens bivalves by diminishing the availability of carbonate minerals, which may adversely affect the development of early life stages, calcification, growth, byssus attachment and survival of bivalves. The Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture (IMTA) approach is a useful method in slowing the effects of climate change, thereby providing longer adaptation period for bivalves to changing ocean conditions. However, for certain regions that experience intense OA effects or for certain bivalve species that have much longer generational time, IMTA alone may not be sufficient to protect bivalves from the adverse effects of climate change. Therefore, it is highly recommended to combine IMTA and genetic breeding methods to facilitate transgenerational acclimation or evolution processes to enhance the climate resilience of bivalves.
Ocean acidification (OA) and heavy metals are common stress factors for marine ecosystems subject to anthropogenic impacts. OA coupled with the heavy metal is likely to affect marine species. This study investigated the single and combined effects of OA (1500 ppm) and cadmium (Cd; 0.4, 1.2 mg/L) on the marine diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum under 7 d exposure. The results clearly indicated that either OA or Cd stress (1.2 mg/L) alone inhibited the growth of P. tricornutum. However, under the combined OA-Cd stress, the growth inhibition disappeared, and the intracellular oxidative damage was mitigated. These results indicated a significantly enhanced tolerance of P. tricornutum to Cd while under OA conditions, which could be beneficial to the survival of this diatom. This study will ultimately help us understand the responses of marine organisms to multiple stressors and have broad implications for the potential ecological risks of Cd under future OA conditions.