Decision-making

GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis for site selection of hybrid offshore wind and wave energy systems in Greece

Vasileiou M, Loukogeorgaki E, Vagiona DG. GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis for site selection of hybrid offshore wind and wave energy systems in Greece. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews [Internet]. 2017 ;73:745 - 757. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1364032117301892
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
Yes
Type: Journal Article

The deployment of Hybrid Offshore Wind and Wave Energy Systems (HOWiWaES) towards the simultaneous exploitation of the corresponding offshore renewable energy sources, may efficiently address the common challenge of the offshore wind and the wave energy sector to reduce their costs, with multiple additional benefits. A prerequisite at an early stage of the realization of a HOWiWaES project is the determination of marine areas suitable for the deployment of HOWiWaES. In the present paper, a methodological framework for identifying the most appropriate marine areas in Greece towards the deployment/siting of HOWiWaES is developed and presented. The framework is based on the combined use of multi-criteria decision making methods and Geographical Information Systems (GIS). At the first stage of the analysis, the unsuitable for the deployment of HOWiWaES marine areas are identified through the development of a GIS database that produces thematic maps representing exclusion criteria related to utilization restrictions as well as to economic, technical and social constraints. Then, at the second stage of the analysis, eligible marine areas not satisfying exclusion criteria are evaluated and ranked using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), based on evaluation criteria related to economic, technical and socio-political factors. The AHP's implementation is supported by the developed GIS database, eliminating significantly the subjectivity in judgments. The results of the paper illustrate the potential for deploying HOWiWaES in Greece, especially in the offshore areas of Crete and in a lengthwise zone extended from North-central to central Aegean.

Science-based management in decline in the Southern Ocean

Brooks CM, Crowder LB, Curran LM, Dunbar RB, Ainley DG, Dodds KJ, Gjerde KM, Sumaila UR. Science-based management in decline in the Southern Ocean. Science [Internet]. 2016 ;354(6309):185 - 187. Available from: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/doi/10.1126/science.aah4119
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

With an internationally lauded approach to conserving Southern Ocean ecosystems (1), the healthiest marine ecosystems on Earth, the Commission on the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), has committed to adopting marine protected areas (MPAs) in the waters around Antarctica (2). But conflict over MPAs has led CCAMLR member states to disregard the best available science, distort the foundational rules of their convention, break trust, and threaten the integrity of one of the world's most well-regarded science-based multinational governance efforts. With negotiations resuming at the CCAMLR meeting beginning 17 October, we offer recommendations aimed at implementing effective Southern Ocean MPAs, upholding CCAMLR's mandate, and maintaining its global leadership in ecosystem-based management. Given the historic conservation and diplomatic success of CCAMLR and Antarctic governance writ large, if we cannot adopt meaningful MPAs in the Southern Ocean, it does not bode well for doing so in the rest of the high seas.

From science to action: Principles for undertaking environmental research that enables knowledge exchange and evidence-based decision-making

Cvitanovic C, McDonald J, Hobday AJ. From science to action: Principles for undertaking environmental research that enables knowledge exchange and evidence-based decision-making. Journal of Environmental Management [Internet]. 2016 ;183:864 - 874. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030147971630696X
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Effective conservation requires knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers to enable learning and support evidence-based decision-making. Efforts to improve knowledge exchange have been hindered by a paucity of empirically-grounded guidance to help scientists and practitioners design and implement research programs that actively facilitate knowledge exchange. To address this, we evaluated the Ningaloo Research Program (NRP), which was designed to generate new scientific knowledge to support evidence-based decisions about the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park in north-western Australia. Specifically, we evaluated (1) outcomes of the NRP, including the extent to which new knowledge informed management decisions; (2) the barriers that prevented knowledge exchange among scientists and managers; (3) the key requirements for improving knowledge exchange processes in the future; and (4) the core capacities that are required to support knowledge exchange processes. While the NRP generated expansive and multidisciplinary science outputs directly relevant to the management of the Ningaloo Marine Park, decision-makers are largely unaware of this knowledge and little has been integrated into decision-making processes. A range of barriers prevented efficient and effective knowledge exchange among scientists and decision-makers including cultural differences among the groups, institutional barriers within decision-making agencies, scientific outputs that were not translated for decision-makers and poor alignment between research design and actual knowledge needs. We identify a set of principles to be implemented routinely as part of any applied research program, including; (i) stakeholder mapping prior to the commencement of research programs to identify all stakeholders, (ii) research questions to be co-developed with stakeholders, (iii) implementation of participatory research approaches, (iv) use of a knowledge broker, and (v) tailored knowledge management systems. Finally, we articulate the individual, institutional and financial capacities that must be developed to underpin successful knowledge exchange strategies.

Northeast Regional Ocean Plan: Options for Effective Decision Making

Anon. Northeast Regional Ocean Plan: Options for Effective Decision Making. Boston: SeaPlan; 2014. Available from: http://neoceanplanning.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Options-for-Effective-Decision_Draft-Report-Sept-29.pdf
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Report

This report analyzes options for improving agency decision making under existing authorities to support development of the Northeast Regional Ocean Plan.

The use of ecological, fishing and environmental indicators in support of decision making in southern Benguela fisheries

Lockerbie EM, Shannon LJ, Jarre A. The use of ecological, fishing and environmental indicators in support of decision making in southern Benguela fisheries. Ecological Indicators [Internet]. 2016 ;69:473 - 487. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X16302102
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Indicators have been recognised as a useful tool aiding the implementation of an ecosystem approach to fisheries in marine ecosystems. Studies, such as the IndiSeas project (www.indiseas.org), use a suite of indicators as a method of assessing the state and trends of several of the world's marine ecosystems. While it is well known that both fishing and climatic variability influence marine fisheries in the southern Benguela ecosystem there are currently few studies in support of fisheries management that make use of environmental indicators in order to include climatic impacts on marine fish populations. Trends in ecological, fishing and environmental indicators can be utilised in a way that allows an overall ecosystem trend to be determined, and can therefore be used to aid decision support within southern Benguela fisheries. In this study trends in indicators were determined using linear regressions across three time periods, Period 1: 1978–1993, Period 2: 1994–2003 and Period 3: 2004–2010. These time periods were selected based on the timing of regime shifts within the southern Benguela, including changes in upwelling, wind stress and temperature. Each ecological indicator received a score based on the direction and significance of the observed trend with respect to fishing. To account for the impacts of fishing and environmental drivers on ecological indicators, scores were adjusted by predetermined factors, depending on the extent and direction of trends in these indicators. Weightings were applied to correlated ecological indicators to account for their redundancy, and lessen their impact on overall ecosystem score. Mean weighted scores were then used to establish an overall ecosystem score for each time period. Ecosystem classification was determined as follows: 1–1.49 = improving, 1.5–2.49 = possibly improving, 2.5–3.49 = no improvement or deterioration, 3.5–4.49 = possible deterioration, 4.5–5 = deteriorating. The ecosystem was observed to neither deteriorate nor improve across Period 1 or 2 (mean weighted scores: 2.75 and 2.56 respectively), however, during Period 3 a possible improvement was observed (mean weighted score: 1.99). This study shows that the sequential analysis of suites of ecological, fishing and environmental indicators can be used in order to determine ecosystem trends, accounting for both the impacts of fishing and the environment on ecosystem components.

What is the best available science? A comparison of marine scientists, managers, and interest groups in the United States

Wolters EAllen, Steel BS, Lach D, Kloepfer D. What is the best available science? A comparison of marine scientists, managers, and interest groups in the United States. Ocean & Coastal Management [Internet]. 2016 ;122:95 - 102. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569116300114
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

In recent years there have been calls among decision makers, interest groups, citizens, and scientists alike for the use of the “best available science” when making environmental policy and managing natural resources. The assumption is that including scientists and the best available scientific information will improve the quality of complex policy decisions. Others have argued, however, that science and scientists are just one source of expertise concerning environmental management and increasing involvement will not necessarily lead to better policy. We report on a study examining the attitudes and orientations of marine scientists, resource managers, and interest group representatives concerning factors that may affect scientific credibility, the credibility of scientific research produced by various organizations, and perceptions of the ability of certain groups to understand scientific research. Using national random sample surveys and interviews of marine scientists, marine managers, and interest groups involved in marine policy issues conducted in 2011, we examine indicators of scientific credibility, data, research and reputation; the ability of scientists to communicate findings; and the role of scientists in the policy process. Further, we explore what factors contribute to credible science, the credibility of the science produced by various organizations, and the scientific literacy of various policy actors.

Decision tools for coral reef managers: Using participatory decision support to integrate potential climate impacts and informed decision making

Fletcher PJ, Spranger M, Hendee JC, Li Y, Clark M, Kiker GA. Decision tools for coral reef managers: Using participatory decision support to integrate potential climate impacts and informed decision making. Global Ecology and Conservation [Internet]. 2015 ;4:491 - 504. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2351989415000979
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

The decline in coral reef health presents a complex management issue. While several causes of decline have been identified and are under continued study, it is often difficult to discern management actions necessary to address multiple near- and far-field stressors to these ecosystems. As a result, resource managers seek tools to improve the understanding of ecosystem condition and to develop management responses to reduce local and regional pressures in the wake of larger, global impacts. A research study conducted from 2010 to 2014 in southeast Florida, USA consisted of two objectives: (1) conduct a needs assessment survey with coral reef and marine resource managers to identify data needs and the preferred design and delivery of climate information; and (2) develop and evaluate prototype decision support tools. The needs assessment process was helpful for identifying the types of climate information managers would like to obtain to inform decision making and to specify the preferred format for the delivery of that information. Three prototype tools were evaluated by managers using pre/post surveys that included hands-on tutorials to explore the functionality of each. Manager responses were recorded using a five-point scale with 1 being No or Not Useful to 5 being Absolutely or Very Useful. The median responses rated the usefulness of the tools (4), if they would consider using the tool (4), and if they would recommend using the tool to other managers (4 or 5). The median response for increasing manager’s knowledge about climate impacts after completing a tutorial of each of the climate tools was a 3 (moderately useful). Of the managers surveyed in the pre/post-survey, all but one stated they believed they would use the decision support tools in the future with the single response due to wealth of data availability in their institution.

DESYCO: A decision support system for the regional risk assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones

Torresan S, Critto A, Rizzi J, Zabeo A, Furlan E, Marcomini A. DESYCO: A decision support system for the regional risk assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones. Ocean & Coastal Management [Internet]. 2016 ;120:49 - 63. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569115300545
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Several decision support systems were developed in recent years to encourage climate adaptation planning in coastal areas, especially at a national to global scale. However, few prototypes are easy to use and accessible for decision-makers to evaluate and manage risks locally. DESYCO is a GIS based decision support system specifically designed to better understand the risks that climate change poses at the regional/subnational scale (e.g. the effect of sea level rise and coastal erosion on human assets and ecosystems) and set the context of strategic adaptation planning within Integrated Coastal Zone Management. It implements a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology allowing the spatial assessment of multiple climate change impacts in coastal areas and the ranking of key elements at risk (beaches, wetlands, protected areas, urban and agricultural areas). The core of the system is a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) model used to operationalize the steps of the RRA (hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage assessment) by integrating a blend of information from climate scenarios (global/regional climate projections and hydrodynamic/hydrological simulations) and from non-climate vulnerability factors (physical, environmental and socio-economic features of the analysed system). User-friendly interfaces simplify the interaction with the system, providing guidance for risk mapping, results communication and understanding.

DESYCO was applied to low-lying coastal plains and islands (the North Adriatic Sea, the Gulf of Gabes and the Republic of Mauritius), river basins and groundwater systems (Upper Plain of Veneto and Friuli-Venezia Giulia, Marche Region). The paper presents the RRA methodology, the structure of DESYCO and its software architecture, showing the capabilities of the tool to support decision making and climate proofing in a wide range of situations (e.g. shoreline planning, land use and water resource management, flood risk reduction).

Assessing public “participation” in environmental decision-making: Lessons learned from the UK Marine Conservation Zone (MCZ) site selection process

De Santo EM. Assessing public “participation” in environmental decision-making: Lessons learned from the UK Marine Conservation Zone (MCZ) site selection process. Marine Policy [Internet]. 2016 ;64:91 - 101. Available from: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X1500322X
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

As part of implementing the 2009 Marine and Coastal Access Act (MCAA), the UK Government undertook an ambitious program of stakeholder-led site selection projects from 2009–2011 to designate a network of Marine Conservation Zones (MCZs). This process resulted in a list of 127 proposed MCZs designed to conserve biodiversity and reconcile socioeconomic concerns, however, citing budgetary constraints and evidence-related issues, the UK Government has proceeded with a tranche approach, designating far fewer sites than stakeholders had expected. Concerned with the Government's lack of progress on the MCZ process, Parliament conducted two inquiries, highlighting problems with the Government's approach. In addition, public confidence in the participative process has eroded, with particular despair expressed by participants in the regional projects, who invested considerable time and effort in the site-selection process. This outcome has implications not only for the UK's future coastal and marine planning, but also with regard to the implementation of the Aarhus Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters. Drawing on interviews with participants in the consultation process, this paper examines the role of stakeholder participation in the UK MCZ site selection process, in particular how well the UK Government implemented its obligations under the Aarhus Convention, and the meaning of “participation” in a climate of political change and budgetary constraint.

Strategic management decision-making in a complex world: quantifying, understanding, and using trade-offs

Punt AE. Strategic management decision-making in a complex world: quantifying, understanding, and using trade-offs. ICES Journal of Marine Science [Internet]. 2015 . Available from: http://icesjms.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2015/11/09/icesjms.fsv193
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

The use of management strategy evaluation (MSE) techniques to inform strategic decision-making is now standard in fisheries management. The technical aspects of MSE, including how to design operating models that represent the managed system and how to simulate future use of management strategies, are well understood and can be readily applied, especially for single-species fisheries. However, MSE evaluations seldom identify strategies that will satisfy all the objectives of decision-makers simultaneously, i.e. each strategy will achieve a different trade-off among the objectives. This study illustrates the basis for identifying management objectives and representing them mathematically using performance measures, as well as how trade-offs among management objectives have been displayed to various audiences who provide input into decision-making. Approaches and experiences are illustrated using case studies. Examples highlight the wide variety of objectives that can be considered using MSE, but that traditional single-species considerations continue to dominate the information provided to decision-makers. The desirability and consequences of having minimum acceptable standards of performance for management strategies, as well as difficulties assigning plausibility ranks to alternative states of nature, are found to be among the major challenges to effective provision of strategic advice on trade-offs among management strategies.

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