Risk Assessment

Implementing Ecosystem Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US Mid-Atlantic

Gaichas SK, DePiper GS, Seagraves RJ, Muffley BW, Sabo MG, Colburn LL, Loftus AJ. Implementing Ecosystem Approaches to Fishery Management: Risk Assessment in the US Mid-Atlantic. Frontiers in Marine Science [Internet]. 2018 ;5. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2018.00442/full
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Fishery managers worldwide are evaluating methods for incorporating climate, habitat, ecological, social, and economic factors into current operations in order to implement Ecosystem Approaches to Fishery Management (EAFM). While this can seem overwhelming, it is possible to take practical steps toward EAFM implementation that make use of existing information and provide managers with valuable strategic advice. Here, we describe the process used by the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Fishery Management Council (Council) to develop an ecosystem-level risk assessment, the initial step proposed in their recently adopted EAFM guidance document. The Council first defined five types of Risk Elements (ecological, economic, social, food production, management) and identified which management objectives aligned with each element. Based on an existing ecosystem status report for the region and other existing sources (including expert opinion), potential ecological, social, economic, and management indicators were identified for each risk element. Finally, low, low-moderate, moderate-high, and high risk criteria were defined for each indicator, and the indicator data were used to score each risk element using the criteria. The ultimate outcome is a ranked risk assessment in order to focus on the highest risk issues for further evaluation and mitigation. The risk assessment highlights certain species and certain management issues as posing higher cumulative risks to meeting Council management objectives when considering a broad range of ecological, social, and economic factors. Tabular color coded summaries of risk assessment results will be used by the Council to prioritize further EAFM analyses as well as research plans over the coming 5 years. As ecosystem reporting and operational EAFM continue to evolve in future years, the Council foresees integrating these efforts so that ecosystem indicators are refined to meet the needs of fishery managers in identifying and managing risks to achieving ecological, social, and economic fishery objectives. Overall, ecosystem indicator-based risk assessment is a method that can be adapted to a wide range of resource management systems and available information, and therefore represents a promising way forward in the implementation of EAFM.

Maximising community wellbeing: Assessing the threats to the benefits communities derive from the marine estate

Gollan N, Voyer M, Jordan A, Barclay K. Maximising community wellbeing: Assessing the threats to the benefits communities derive from the marine estate. Ocean & Coastal Management [Internet]. 2019 ;168:12 - 21. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0964569118305350
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

The coastal and marine environment is often managed according to the principles of sustainable development, which include environmental, economic, and social dimensions. While each are equally important, social sustainability receives a lower priority in both policy and research. Methodologies for assessing social sustainability are less developed than for environmental and economic sustainability, and there is a lack of data on the social aspects of sustainable development (such as social equity), which constitutes a barrier to understanding social considerations and integrating them into natural resource management. This paper explores a threat and risk assessment to the marine estate in New South Wales, Australia, which identified and categorised both the benefits that communities gain from the marine estate and the threats to those benefits. A broad range of benefits were identified including participation (e.g., socialising and sense of community), enjoyment (e.g., enjoying the biodiversity and beauty), cultural heritage and use, intrinsic and bequest values, the viability of businesses, and direct economic values. Threats to community benefits were categorised as resource use conflict, environmental, governance, public safety, critical knowledge gaps and lack of access. An integrated threat and risk assessment approach found that the priority threats to community benefits were environmental threats (e.g., water pollution), critical knowledge gaps (e.g., inadequate social and economic information), governance (e.g., lack of compliance), resource-use conflict (e.g., anti-social behaviour), and lack of access (e.g., loss of fishing access). Threat and risk assessment is an evidence-based tool that is useful for marine planning because it provides a structured approach to incorporating multiple types of knowledge and enables limited resources to be targeted to the threats identified as being most important to address.

An integrated risk-based assessment of the North Sea to guide ecosystem-based management

Piet G, Culhane F, Jongbloed R, Robinson L, Rumes B, Tamis J. An integrated risk-based assessment of the North Sea to guide ecosystem-based management. Science of The Total Environment [Internet]. In Press . Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S004896971834347X
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

This study provides an integrated perspective to ecosystem based management (EBM) by considering a diverse array of societal goals, i.e. sustainable food supply, clean energy and a healthy marine ecosystem, and a selection of management measures to achieve them. The primary aim of this exercise is to provide guidance for (more) integrated EBM in the North Sea based on an evaluation of the effectiveness of those management measures in contributing to the conservation of marine biodiversity. A secondary aim is to identify the requirements of the knowledge base to guide such future EBM initiatives.

Starting from the societal goals we performed a scoping exercise to identify a “focal social-ecological system” which is a subset of the full social-ecological system but considered adequate to guide EBM towards the achievement of those societal goals. A semi-quantitative risk assessment including all the relevant human activities, their pressures and the impacted ecosystem components was then applied to identify the main threats to the North Sea biodiversity and evaluate the effectiveness of the management measures to mitigate those threats.

This exercise revealed the need for such risk-based approaches in providing a more integrated perspective but also the trade-off between being comprehensive but qualitative versus quantitative but limited in terms of the “focal” part of the SES that can be covered. The findings in this paper provide direction to the (further) development of EBM and its knowledge base that should ultimately allow an integrated perspective while maintaining its capacity to deliver the accuracy and detail needed for decision-making.

Using conflict over risk management in the marine environment to strengthen measures of governance

Parlee CE, Wiber MG. Using conflict over risk management in the marine environment to strengthen measures of governance. Ecology and Society [Internet]. 2018 ;23(4). Available from: https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol23/iss4/art5/
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Management of and planning for the Canadian marine environment can be disrupted by conflict, but conflict is inevitable given the plurality of actors, interests, values, and uses of marine space. Unresolved conflict may impede governance objectives and threaten the sustainability of social-ecological systems. Innovative institutional arrangements such as adaptive comanagement theoretically reduce conflict and support sustainable management. The southwest New Brunswick Bay of Fundy Marine Advisory Committee (MAC) was assembled in 2004 to address conflict between marine users and to further marine planning. As an innovative planning institution influenced by comanagement theory, the MAC experience served as a case study to develop governance measures for the Canadian Fisheries Research Network Comprehensive Fisheries Sustainability Framework, which includes a consideration of ecological, social, economic, and governance dimensions of sustainability. One of the most important but neglected aspects of sustainability measurements involves the assessment of governance and planning effectiveness. An assessment of the MAC experience through a comprehensive sustainability evaluation framework offers significant lessons for advancing the theoretical and empirical literature on adaptive comanagement through deeper consideration of challenges in creating institutions of “good governance.” In doing so, the case study also contributes to the Comprehensive Fisheries Sustainability Framework by testing some measures of governance effectiveness, including co-operation, resources, transparency, accountability, and inclusivity.

Impact of error in ocean dynamical background, on the transport of underwater spilled oil

Li Y, Chen H, Lv X. Impact of error in ocean dynamical background, on the transport of underwater spilled oil. Ocean Modelling [Internet]. In Press . Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146350031830088X
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Based on a validated underwater oil spill model and the hydrodynamic background provided by an unstructured grid, finite-volume, coastal ocean model (FVCOM), a series of numerical experiments are conducted to study the impact of error in ocean dynamical background currents on the 3D transport of underwater spilled oil, in terms of three metrics including oil centroid position, sweeping area, and sweeping volume. Numerical result shows that a larger error in ocean dynamical background currents results in a larger model error expectation and uncertainty for all three metrics. As model time increases, the model error mainly increases and the error growth rate varies unevenly. The sensitivity of the oil spill model to background current error can be interpreted as an integrated result of the temporal and spatial variations of the background current and the movement of oil droplets of different sizes.

Near and far-field hazards of asteroid impacts in oceans

Robertson DK, Gisler GR. Near and far-field hazards of asteroid impacts in oceans. Acta Astronautica [Internet]. 2018 . Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576517314996
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Hazards resulting from asteroid ocean impacts were modelled using hydrocode simulations to examine the near-field effects including the initial formation and subsequent long range propagation of tsunami waves that can transport potentially damaging energy far from the impact site.

Three-dimensional simulations of oblique impacts into deep water, with trajectory angles ranging from 27° to 60° above the horizontal, were performed with the Los Alamos Rage hydrocode. The simulations include atmospheric effects such as ablation and airbursts. These oblique impact simulations are performed in order to help determine whether there are additional dangers due to the obliquity of impact not covered by previous studies. The energy transferred to both the air blast wave and the water are calculated as well as the amount of sea water lofted into the upper atmosphere. Water crater sizes and subsequent surface elevation profiles, surface pressures, and depth-averaged mass fluxes within the water are prepared for use in far-field propagation studies. Like previous three-dimensional simulations, these simulations show that except at exceedingly shallow entry angles below those simulated here the resulting waves are roughly circular and that the initial waves and central jet oscillation are highly turbulent and dissipate a lot of the energy.

Two-dimensional axisymmetric simulations of long range propagation of impact tsunami were performed using the Lawrence Livermore ALE3D hydrocode on the NASA Pleiades supercomputer. These simulations showed that impacts under 1 gigaton TNT equivalent into the deep ocean basins will create deep-water waves that undergo dispersion, whereas impacts onto continental shelves will create shallow-water waves that do not suffer dispersion. The simulations also showed that on the order of 1% of the kinetic energy of the impact is converted into the tsunami wave. This is an order of magnitude less than previous semi-empirical estimates of ∼15% based on explosion test data and laboratory scale impacts.

Current practices and knowledge supporting oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic

Wenning RJ, Robinson H, Bock M, Rempel-Hester MAnn, Gardiner W. Current practices and knowledge supporting oil spill risk assessment in the Arctic. Marine Environmental Research [Internet]. In Press . Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0141113617306773
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $39.95
Type: Journal Article

Oil spill response (OSR) in the Arctic marine environment conducted as part of operational planning and preparedness supporting exploration and development is most successful when knowledge of the ecosystem is readily available and applicable in an oil spill risk assessment framework. OSR strategies supporting decision-making during the critical period after a spill event should be explicit about the environmental resources potentially at risk and the efficacy of OSR countermeasures that best protect sensitive and valued resources. At present, there are 6 prominent methods for spill impact mitigation assessment (SIMA) in the Arctic aimed at supporting OSR and operational planning and preparedness; each method examines spill scenarios and identifies response strategies best suited to overcome the unique challenges posed by polar ecosystems and to minimize potential long-term environmental consequences. The different methods are grounded in classical environmental risk assessment and the net environmental benefit analysis (NEBA) approach that emerged in the 1990s after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. The different approaches share 5 primary assessment elements (oil physical and chemical properties, fate and transport, exposure, effects and consequence analysis). This paper highlights how the different Arctic methods reflect this common risk assessment framework and share a common need for oil spill science relevant to Arctic ecosystems. An online literature navigation portal, developed as part of the 5-year Arctic Oil Spill Response Technologies Joint Industry Programme, complements the different approaches currently used in the Arctic by capturing the rapidly expanding body of scientific knowledge useful to evaluating exposure, vulnerability and recovery of the Arctic ecosystem after an oil spill.

Tourist vessel traffic in important whale areas in the western Canadian Arctic: Risks and possible management solutions

Halliday WD, Têtu P-L, Dawson J, Insley SJ, R. Hilliard C. Tourist vessel traffic in important whale areas in the western Canadian Arctic: Risks and possible management solutions. Marine Policy [Internet]. 2018 ;97:72 - 81. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0308597X18305359
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $35.95
Type: Journal Article

Vessel traffic has been increasing rapidly in the Arctic, and within the Canadian Arctic, tourist vessels are the fastest growing maritime sector. Vessel traffic can cause a variety of impacts on whales, including ship strikes and acoustic disturbance. Here, the overlap between tourist vessels (e.g., pleasure craft/yachts and passenger vessels/cruise ships) and whale concentration areas is assessed within the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic. Different management measures which could be used to reduce impacts on whales are also assessed. Passenger vessels have had a relatively constant overlap with whale concentration areas through time, whereas pleasure craft have had a recent and rapid increase. Passenger vessels may have a greater impact on whales, compared to pleasure craft, since they are larger and travel faster. Excluding vessels from the two marine protected areas in the region would have no impact on whales within concentration areas, since vessels would likely just be displaced to adjacent areas with similar whale concentrations. Restricting vessels to the Canadian government's proposed low-impact corridor may reduce impact slightly, but creating a corridor completely outside of the known whale area could more significantly reduce the potential impact of vessels on whales in those areas. Restricting vessel speed within whale areas would also reduce the impact of passenger vessels, but would not likely reduce the impact of pleasure craft. Overall, a combination of management measures may be the best way to reduce impacts on whales in concentration areas.

Assessing risks to marine ecosystems with indicators, ecosystem models and experts

Bland LM, Watermeyer KE, Keith DA, Nicholson E, Regan TJ, Shannon LJ. Assessing risks to marine ecosystems with indicators, ecosystem models and experts. Biological Conservation [Internet]. 2018 ;227:19 - 28. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000632071731501X
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $35.95
Type: Journal Article

Assessing risks to marine ecosystems is critical due to their biological and economic importance, and because many have recently undergone regime shifts due to overfishing and environmental change. Yet defining collapsed ecosystem states, selecting informative indicators and reconstructing long-term marine ecosystem changes remains challenging. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems constitutes the global standard for quantifying risks to ecosystems and we conducted the first Red List assessment of an offshore marine ecosystem, focusing on the southern Benguela in South Africa. We used an analogous but collapsed ecosystem – the northern Benguela – to help define collapse in the southern Benguela and derived collapse thresholds with structured expert elicitation (i.e. repeatable estimation by expert judgment). To capture complex ecosystem dynamics and reconstruct historical ecosystem states, we used environmental indicators as well as survey-, catch- and model-based indicators. We listed the ecosystem in 1960 and 2015 as Endangered, with assessment outcomes robust to alternative model parametrizations. While many indicators improved between 1960 and 2015, seabird populations have suffered large declines since 1900 and remain at risk, pointing towards ongoing management priorities. Catch-based indicators often over-estimated risks compared to survey- and model-based indicators, warning against listing ecosystems as threatened solely based on indicators of pressure. We show that risk assessments provide a framework for interpreting data from indicators, ecosystem models and experts to inform the management of marine ecosystems. This work highlights the feasibility of conducting Red List of Ecosystems assessments for marine ecosystems.

What Scientists Say about the Changing Risk Calculation in the Marine Environment under the Harper Government of Canada (2006-2015)

Barnett AJ, Wiber MG. What Scientists Say about the Changing Risk Calculation in the Marine Environment under the Harper Government of Canada (2006-2015). Science, Technology, & Human Values [Internet]. 2018 . Available from: http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0162243918781269
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $49.00
Type: Journal Article

This paper examines how the Harper Government of Canada (2006-2015) shut down both debate about threats and research into environmental risk, a strategy that Canadian scientists characterized as the “death of evidence.” Based on interviews with scientists who research risks to the marine environment, we explore the shifting relationship between science and the Canadian government by tracing the change in the mode of risk calculation supported by the Harper administration and the impact of this change. Five themes emerged from the interviews: erosion of science research capacity, resulting limitations in understanding risk, declining influence on policy and regulation, redirection of public science funds to support the private sector, and the need to broaden the science knowledge base. The Canadian death of evidence controversy represents a challenge to science and technology studies (STS) scholars who wish to maintain a critical and reflexive perspective on the scientific enterprise without supporting attacks on evidence. While subsequent Canadian governments may simply return science to an unreflexively privileged knowledge status, we view this as equally damaging to broad risk calculation and democratic science. We suggest instead that a broader gathering of matters of concern will always be essential to risk assessment.

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