Risk Assessment

A review on the potential effects of tsunami on built environment

A. Teresa REnid, Vasanth GDNJerry, Vidya C. A review on the potential effects of tsunami on built environment. Materials Today: Proceedings [Internet]. 2020 . Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214785320344667
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Over the past two decades, natural calamities like tsunamis and earthquakes occur more frequently, posing a serious threat to the human race. About 80% of these calamities have the “Ring of Fire” in the Pacific Ocean as its epicenter, causing extreme destructions due to the huge amount of energy and moving water bodies striking the adjoining land masses. Tsunamis cause heavy damage to human lives killing almost 430,000 lives since 1850, as it is almost impossible to flee from the mammoth waves. Huge waves collapse concrete buildings causing electrocution, explosion of gas plants, breakage of tanks and industries due to the floating debris that comes along with the killer waves. Following a tsunami, loss of infrastructures and economies is inevitable. This paper highlights the types of tsunamis and their potential effects on built structures and explains the association between tsunami related injuries and household level risk factors, including damages to built environment. Earlier studies have revealed that women, children and elderly citizens are at greater risk, and proximity to sea shores increase their risk of being affected. This finding, together with the risk of living in permanent structures in tsunami threatened areas should be an eye opener for the policy makers.

Semi-probabilistic coastal flood impact analysis: From deterministic hazards to multi-damage model impacts

Duo E, Fernández-Montblanc T, Armaroli C. Semi-probabilistic coastal flood impact analysis: From deterministic hazards to multi-damage model impacts. Environment International [Internet]. 2020 ;143:105884. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412020318390
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Coastal flood impact assessments are important tools for risk management and are performed by combining the hazard component with the vulnerability of exposed assets, to quantify consequences (or impacts) in terms of relative or absolute (e.g. financial) damage. The process generates uncertainties that should be taken into account for the correct representation of the consequences of floods. This study presents a coastal flood impact application at the spatial level of the Stavanger municipality (Norway), based on a multi-damage model approach able to represent impacts, and their overall uncertainty. Hazard modelling was performed using the LISFLOOD-FP code, taking into account historical extreme water level events (1988–2017) and relative sea level rise scenarios. Direct impacts were calculated in the form of relative and financial damage for different building categories, using flood damage curves. The results showed that the expected impacts are fewer than 50 flooded receptors and less than €1 million in damage in the current sea level scenario. The impacts could double by the end of the century, considering the most optimistic relative sea level scenario. The results were discussed considering the limitations of the approach for both hazard and impact modelling, that will be improved in future implementations. The outcome of this study may be useful for cost–benefit analyses of mitigation actions and local-scale plans for adaptation.

Behavior and Bio-Interactions of Anthropogenic Particles in Marine Environment for a More Realistic Ecological Risk Assessment

Corsi I, Bergami E, Grassi G. Behavior and Bio-Interactions of Anthropogenic Particles in Marine Environment for a More Realistic Ecological Risk Assessment. Frontiers in Environmental Science [Internet]. 2020 ;8. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2020.00060/full?utm_source=F-AAE&utm_medium=EMLF&utm_campaign=MRK_1359578_25_Enviro_20200623_arts_A
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Owing to production, usage, and disposal of nano-enabled products as well as fragmentation of bulk materials, anthropogenic nanoscale particles (NPs) can enter the natural environment and through different compartments (air, soil, and water) end up into the sea. With the continuous increase in production and associated emissions and discharges, they can reach concentrations able to exceed toxicity thresholds for living species inhabiting marine coastal areas. Behavior and fate of NPs in marine waters are driven by transformation processes occurring as a function of NP intrinsic and extrinsic properties in the receiving seawaters. All those aspects have been overlooked in ecological risk assessment. This review critically reports ecotoxicity studies in which size distribution, surface charges and bio−nano interactions have been considered for a more realistic risk assessment of NPs in marine environment. Two emerging and relevant NPs, the metal-based titanium dioxide (TiO2), and polystyrene (PS), a proxy for nanoplastics, are reviewed, and their impact on marine biota (from planktonic species to invertebrates and fish) is discussed as a function of particle size and surface charges (negative vs. positive), which affect their behavior and interaction with the biological material. Uptake of NPs is related to their nanoscale size; however, in vivo studies clearly demonstrated that transformation (agglomerates/aggregates) occurring in both artificial and natural seawater drive to different exposure routes and biological responses at cellular and organism level. Adsorption of single particles or agglomerates onto the body surface or their internalization in feces can impair motility and affect sinking or floating behavior with consequences on populations and ecological function. Particle complex dynamics in natural seawater is almost unknown, although it determines the effective exposure scenarios. Based on the latest predicted environmental concentrations for TiO2 and PS NPs in the marine environment, current knowledge gaps and future research challenges encompass the comprehensive study of bio−nano interactions. As such, the analysis of NP biomolecular coronas can enable a better assessment of particle uptake and related cellular pathways leading to toxic effects. Moreover, the formation of an environmentally derived corona (i.e., eco-corona) in seawater accounts for NP physical–chemical alterations, rebounding on interaction with living organisms and toxicity.

Preventing shipping accidents: Past, present, and future of waterway risk management with Baltic Sea focus

Kulkarni K, Goerlandt F, Li J, Banda OValdez, Kujala P. Preventing shipping accidents: Past, present, and future of waterway risk management with Baltic Sea focus. Safety Science [Internet]. 2020 ;129:104798. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753520301958
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Various national maritime authorities and international organizations show strong interest to implement risk management processes to decision making for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas. There is a recurring need for approaches, models, and tools for identifying, analysing, and evaluating risks of shipping accidents, and for strategies for preventively managing these in (inter-)organizational settings. This article presents a comprehensive review of academic work in this research area, aiming to identify patterns, trends, and gaps, serving as a guide for future research and development, with a particular focus on the Baltic Sea Region. To understand the links between research in the Baltic Sea area and the global community, a bibliometric analysis is performed, focusing on identifying dominant narratives and social networks in the research community. Articles from the Baltic Sea area are subsequently analysed more in-depth, addressing issues like the nature of the academic work done, the risk management processes involved, and the underlying accident theories. From the results, patterns in the historical evolution of the research domain are detected, and insights about current trends gained, which are used to identify future avenues for research.

Examining harmful algal blooms through a disaster risk management lens: A case study of the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event

Ekstrom JA, Moore SK, Klinger T. Examining harmful algal blooms through a disaster risk management lens: A case study of the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event. Harmful Algae [Internet]. 2020 ;94:101740. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568988320300019
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

The human dimensions of harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming increasingly apparent as they grow in frequency and magnitude in some regions of the world under changing ocean conditions. One such region is the U.S. West Coast, where HABs of toxigenic species of Pseudo-nitzschia have been found to coincide with or closely follow periods of warming. In 2015, the region experienced a massive HAB of Pseudo-nitzschia that was associated with the 2014-16 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave. The HAB event delayed the opening of the lucrative commercial Dungeness crab fishery for up to 5 months and closed the popular recreational razor clam fishery, resulting in fishery failures and disaster declarations and causing significant sociocultural and economic impacts to coastal communities. Here, management actions are examined that were taken by federal and state government agencies and responses of coastal residents to this extreme HAB event using a disaster risk management framework consisting of four phases: 1) prediction and early warning, 2) event response, 3) recovery and reconstruction, and 4) mitigation and prevention. Clear differences in management actions at the state level were evident in California, Oregon, and Washington during every phase, producing vastly different perceptions of management by coastal residents. A history of trusted relationships and coordination among agencies and with the fishing industry in Washington State was associated with more transparent and accepted management responses. The examination found that additional education, outreach, and trust-building exercises would provide benefits to communities affected by extreme HAB events. Our findings contribute to an understanding of climate change adaptation in coastal communities dependent on fishery resources.

Operationalizing risk-based cumulative effect assessments in the marine environment

Stelzenmüller V, Coll M, Cormier R, Mazaris AD, Pascual M, Loiseau C, Claudet J, Katsanevakis S, Gissi E, Evagelopoulos A, et al. Operationalizing risk-based cumulative effect assessments in the marine environment. Science of The Total Environment [Internet]. 2020 ;724:138118. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720316314
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Ecosystem-based management requires an assessment of the cumulative effects of human pressures and environmental change. The operationalization and integration of cumulative effects assessments (CEA) into decision-making processes often lacks a comprehensive and transparent framework. A risk-based CEA framework that divides a CEA in risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation, could structure such complex analyses and facilitate the establishment of direct science-policy links. Here, we examine carefully the operationalization of such a risk-based CEA framework with the help of eleven contrasting case studies located in Europe, French Polynesia, and Canada. We show that the CEA framework used at local, sub-regional, and regional scales allowed for a consistent, coherent, and transparent comparison of complex assessments. From our analysis, we pinpoint four emerging issues that, if accurately addressed, can improve the take up of CEA outcomes by management: 1) framing of the CEA context and defining risk criteria; 2) describing the roles of scientists and decision-makers; 3) reducing and structuring complexity; and 4) communicating uncertainty. Moreover, with a set of customized tools we describe and analyze for each case study the nature and location of uncertainty as well as trade-offs regarding available knowledge and data used for the CEA. Ultimately, these tools aid decision-makers to recognize potential caveats and repercussions of management decisions. One key recommendation is to differentiate CEA processes and their context in relation to governance advice, marine spatial planning or regulatory advice. We conclude that future research needs to evaluate how effective management measures are in reducing the risk of cumulative effects. Changing governance structures takes time and is often difficult, but we postulate that well-framed and structured CEA can function as a strategic tool to integrate ecosystem considerations across multiple sectorial policies.

Risk screening of the potential invasiveness of non-native jellyfishes in the Mediterranean Sea

Killi N, Tarkan ASerhan, Kozic S, Copp GH, Davison PI, Vilizzi L. Risk screening of the potential invasiveness of non-native jellyfishes in the Mediterranean Sea. Marine Pollution Bulletin [Internet]. In Press :110728. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0025326X19308847
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $39.95
Type: Journal Article

The aim of the present study was to risk screen 45 jellyfish species (30 hydromedusae, 14 scyphomedusae, one cubomedusa) for their potential invasiveness in the Mediterranean Sea to aid managers in making informed decisions on targeting appropriate species for management. Using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK), calibrated basic and climate-change threshold assessment scores of 6.5 and 12.5, respectively, were identified for distinguishing reliably between species that pose ‘low-to-medium’ and ‘high’ risk of becoming invasive in the risk assessment area. Using these thresholds, 16 species were classified as high risk, 23 as medium risk and six as low risk under current climate conditions. Whereas, under future climate conditions, 13, 30 and two species, respectively, were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. Upside-down jellyfish Cassiopea andromeda, Australian spotted jellyfish Phyllorhiza punctata, sea nettle Chrysaora quinquecirrha and Rhopilema nomadica were the highest-scoring species, with the maximum increase in risk score under predicted climate change conditions being achieved by C. andromeda.

Can multi-use of the sea be safe? A framework for risk assessment of multi-use at sea

van Hoof L, van den Burg SWK, Banach JL, Röckmann C, Goossen M. Can multi-use of the sea be safe? A framework for risk assessment of multi-use at sea. Ocean & Coastal Management [Internet]. In Press :105030. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0964569119309007
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $35.95
Type: Journal Article

By 2050 the world population is expected to reach 10 billion people. This population needs food, water and energy. Increasingly, opportunities are sought out at sea to accommodate these needs. As there is already competition for space, especially in the near-shore, opportunities for multi-use, including the combination of, for example, food and energy production in a single location, are sought. One issue that needs to be addressed to allow for multi-use at sea is safety. Existing frameworks for (marine) risk assessment tend to be rather sector specific and, although existing models and frameworks for risk analysis provide useful elements for an integrated analysis, none of the approaches fully caters for the need of having a framework based on a cyclical process of stakeholder input in all steps of the process of risk identification, risk management and risk evaluation and communication, identifying actions to be taken and providing tools useful in each of the steps, while integrating the three perspectives of maritime safety, food (and feed) safety, and environmental impact assessment and the different perspectives of the actors involved. This study developed a common framework for the risk assessment of multi-use at sea, consisting of six steps (Exploring, Understanding, Appraising, Deciding, Implementing and Evaluating & Communication). The framework encompasses and integrates an analysis of food and feed safety aspects, the safety of people and equipment, and environmental safety aspects. For each step, actions are defined, tools that can be of help to stakeholders are presented, and stakeholder participation measures are described. The framework is iterative and dynamic in its nature; with constant communication and evaluation of progress, decisions can be taken to either take a step forward or back. The framework is developed to assist operators and producers, policymakers, and other stakeholders in assessing and managing risks of multi-use at sea.

Valuing the Flood Risk Reduction Benefits of Florida’s Mangroves

Narayan S, Thomas C, Matthewman J, Shepard CC, Geselbracht L, Nzerem K, Beck MW. Valuing the Flood Risk Reduction Benefits of Florida’s Mangroves. UC Santa Cruz and the Nature Conservancy; 2019. Available from: https://news.ucsc.edu/2019/10/mangroves.html
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Report

In a nutshell,

  • We used an insurance industry catastrophe model from RMS to quantify the flood reduction benefits of mangroves across Florida
  • Annually, across multiple storms, mangroves reduce flood damages by 25.5% to properties behind them in Collier County
  • During Hurricane Irma, over 626,000 people living behind mangrove forests saw reduced flooding in census tracts across Florida
  • During Hurricane Irma, mangroves averted $1.5 billion in surge-related flood damages to properties; which represents a 25% savings in counties with mangroves
  • Every hectare of mangroves with properties behind them provided, on average, $7,500 in risk reduction benefits during Hurricane Irma

Marine Heatwave, Harmful Algae Blooms and an Extensive Fish Kill Event During 2013 in South Australia

Roberts SD, Van Ruth PD, Wilkinson C, Bastianello SS, Bansemer MS. Marine Heatwave, Harmful Algae Blooms and an Extensive Fish Kill Event During 2013 in South Australia. Frontiers in Marine Science [Internet]. 2019 ;6. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00610/full?utm_source=F-AAE&utm_medium=EMLF&utm_campaign=MRK_1132190_45_Marine_20191024_arts_A
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

In 2013, South Australia experienced unusually high and variable water temperatures (5°C above the historic average), with a peak sea surface temperature of approximately 27°C over a wide geographic area covering both gulfs and shelf waters. Over the same period and similar geographic area, a prolonged and widespread marine mortality event occurred. From January to May 2013, low level rates of incidental morbidity and mortality of abalone (Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata) and at least 29 fish species were observed. Mortalities were geographically extensive from Port MacDonnell on the South Coast of South Australia to Point Drummond on Eyre Peninsula, and including two gulf systems, spanning approximately 2,900 km of coastline. Mortalities were investigated using gross pathology, histopathology, bacterial culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques. Water samples were collected to assess water column nutrient status and phytoplankton biomass levels and community composition. High nutrient concentrations were suggestive of high phytoplankton productivity, with conditions conducive to diatom blooms. A harmful (abrasive) diatom, Chaetoceros coarctatus, was observed in higher concentrations than the historical average. Observed fish mortalities were restricted to a small proportion of the populations and primarily comprised of temperate small-bodied benthic inshore species. Fish histopathology was suggestive of prolonged stress (melanomacrophage aggregation in spleens and kidneys), physical gill damage (focal gill lesions likely caused by C. coarctatus) and lethal bacterial septicaemia. Infectious and notifiable diseases were ruled out in all fish and abalone samples. Abalone mortalities were also restricted to a small proportion of the population with thermal stress a likely contributing factor that resulted in terminal secondary bacterial infections. A marine heatwave event, which promoted blooms of algae, including C. coarctatus, was likely the primary cause of widespread marine mortalities throughout South Australia in 2013. With marine heatwaves projected to increase in frequency, duration and spatial extent, this investigation demonstrated that most at risk will be temperate species in shallow water habitats already at their upper thermal tolerance limits, particularly those with high site fidelity. This should be considered in future climate proofing strategies, including risk and impact assessments underpinning the management of marine resources, fisheries, aquaculture and ecotourism.

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