Risk Assessment

Preventing shipping accidents: Past, present, and future of waterway risk management with Baltic Sea focus

Kulkarni K, Goerlandt F, Li J, Banda OValdez, Kujala P. Preventing shipping accidents: Past, present, and future of waterway risk management with Baltic Sea focus. Safety Science [Internet]. 2020 ;129:104798. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925753520301958
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Various national maritime authorities and international organizations show strong interest to implement risk management processes to decision making for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas. There is a recurring need for approaches, models, and tools for identifying, analysing, and evaluating risks of shipping accidents, and for strategies for preventively managing these in (inter-)organizational settings. This article presents a comprehensive review of academic work in this research area, aiming to identify patterns, trends, and gaps, serving as a guide for future research and development, with a particular focus on the Baltic Sea Region. To understand the links between research in the Baltic Sea area and the global community, a bibliometric analysis is performed, focusing on identifying dominant narratives and social networks in the research community. Articles from the Baltic Sea area are subsequently analysed more in-depth, addressing issues like the nature of the academic work done, the risk management processes involved, and the underlying accident theories. From the results, patterns in the historical evolution of the research domain are detected, and insights about current trends gained, which are used to identify future avenues for research.

Examining harmful algal blooms through a disaster risk management lens: A case study of the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event

Ekstrom JA, Moore SK, Klinger T. Examining harmful algal blooms through a disaster risk management lens: A case study of the 2015 U.S. West Coast domoic acid event. Harmful Algae [Internet]. 2020 ;94:101740. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1568988320300019
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

The human dimensions of harmful algal blooms (HABs) are becoming increasingly apparent as they grow in frequency and magnitude in some regions of the world under changing ocean conditions. One such region is the U.S. West Coast, where HABs of toxigenic species of Pseudo-nitzschia have been found to coincide with or closely follow periods of warming. In 2015, the region experienced a massive HAB of Pseudo-nitzschia that was associated with the 2014-16 Northeast Pacific marine heatwave. The HAB event delayed the opening of the lucrative commercial Dungeness crab fishery for up to 5 months and closed the popular recreational razor clam fishery, resulting in fishery failures and disaster declarations and causing significant sociocultural and economic impacts to coastal communities. Here, management actions are examined that were taken by federal and state government agencies and responses of coastal residents to this extreme HAB event using a disaster risk management framework consisting of four phases: 1) prediction and early warning, 2) event response, 3) recovery and reconstruction, and 4) mitigation and prevention. Clear differences in management actions at the state level were evident in California, Oregon, and Washington during every phase, producing vastly different perceptions of management by coastal residents. A history of trusted relationships and coordination among agencies and with the fishing industry in Washington State was associated with more transparent and accepted management responses. The examination found that additional education, outreach, and trust-building exercises would provide benefits to communities affected by extreme HAB events. Our findings contribute to an understanding of climate change adaptation in coastal communities dependent on fishery resources.

Operationalizing risk-based cumulative effect assessments in the marine environment

Stelzenmüller V, Coll M, Cormier R, Mazaris AD, Pascual M, Loiseau C, Claudet J, Katsanevakis S, Gissi E, Evagelopoulos A, et al. Operationalizing risk-based cumulative effect assessments in the marine environment. Science of The Total Environment [Internet]. 2020 ;724:138118. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969720316314
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Ecosystem-based management requires an assessment of the cumulative effects of human pressures and environmental change. The operationalization and integration of cumulative effects assessments (CEA) into decision-making processes often lacks a comprehensive and transparent framework. A risk-based CEA framework that divides a CEA in risk identification, risk analysis and risk evaluation, could structure such complex analyses and facilitate the establishment of direct science-policy links. Here, we examine carefully the operationalization of such a risk-based CEA framework with the help of eleven contrasting case studies located in Europe, French Polynesia, and Canada. We show that the CEA framework used at local, sub-regional, and regional scales allowed for a consistent, coherent, and transparent comparison of complex assessments. From our analysis, we pinpoint four emerging issues that, if accurately addressed, can improve the take up of CEA outcomes by management: 1) framing of the CEA context and defining risk criteria; 2) describing the roles of scientists and decision-makers; 3) reducing and structuring complexity; and 4) communicating uncertainty. Moreover, with a set of customized tools we describe and analyze for each case study the nature and location of uncertainty as well as trade-offs regarding available knowledge and data used for the CEA. Ultimately, these tools aid decision-makers to recognize potential caveats and repercussions of management decisions. One key recommendation is to differentiate CEA processes and their context in relation to governance advice, marine spatial planning or regulatory advice. We conclude that future research needs to evaluate how effective management measures are in reducing the risk of cumulative effects. Changing governance structures takes time and is often difficult, but we postulate that well-framed and structured CEA can function as a strategic tool to integrate ecosystem considerations across multiple sectorial policies.

Risk screening of the potential invasiveness of non-native jellyfishes in the Mediterranean Sea

Killi N, Tarkan ASerhan, Kozic S, Copp GH, Davison PI, Vilizzi L. Risk screening of the potential invasiveness of non-native jellyfishes in the Mediterranean Sea. Marine Pollution Bulletin [Internet]. In Press :110728. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0025326X19308847
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $39.95
Type: Journal Article

The aim of the present study was to risk screen 45 jellyfish species (30 hydromedusae, 14 scyphomedusae, one cubomedusa) for their potential invasiveness in the Mediterranean Sea to aid managers in making informed decisions on targeting appropriate species for management. Using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit (AS-ISK), calibrated basic and climate-change threshold assessment scores of 6.5 and 12.5, respectively, were identified for distinguishing reliably between species that pose ‘low-to-medium’ and ‘high’ risk of becoming invasive in the risk assessment area. Using these thresholds, 16 species were classified as high risk, 23 as medium risk and six as low risk under current climate conditions. Whereas, under future climate conditions, 13, 30 and two species, respectively, were classified as high, medium and low risk, respectively. Upside-down jellyfish Cassiopea andromeda, Australian spotted jellyfish Phyllorhiza punctata, sea nettle Chrysaora quinquecirrha and Rhopilema nomadica were the highest-scoring species, with the maximum increase in risk score under predicted climate change conditions being achieved by C. andromeda.

Can multi-use of the sea be safe? A framework for risk assessment of multi-use at sea

van Hoof L, van den Burg SWK, Banach JL, Röckmann C, Goossen M. Can multi-use of the sea be safe? A framework for risk assessment of multi-use at sea. Ocean & Coastal Management [Internet]. In Press :105030. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0964569119309007
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Approximate cost to purchase or rent this item from the publisher: 
US $35.95
Type: Journal Article

By 2050 the world population is expected to reach 10 billion people. This population needs food, water and energy. Increasingly, opportunities are sought out at sea to accommodate these needs. As there is already competition for space, especially in the near-shore, opportunities for multi-use, including the combination of, for example, food and energy production in a single location, are sought. One issue that needs to be addressed to allow for multi-use at sea is safety. Existing frameworks for (marine) risk assessment tend to be rather sector specific and, although existing models and frameworks for risk analysis provide useful elements for an integrated analysis, none of the approaches fully caters for the need of having a framework based on a cyclical process of stakeholder input in all steps of the process of risk identification, risk management and risk evaluation and communication, identifying actions to be taken and providing tools useful in each of the steps, while integrating the three perspectives of maritime safety, food (and feed) safety, and environmental impact assessment and the different perspectives of the actors involved. This study developed a common framework for the risk assessment of multi-use at sea, consisting of six steps (Exploring, Understanding, Appraising, Deciding, Implementing and Evaluating & Communication). The framework encompasses and integrates an analysis of food and feed safety aspects, the safety of people and equipment, and environmental safety aspects. For each step, actions are defined, tools that can be of help to stakeholders are presented, and stakeholder participation measures are described. The framework is iterative and dynamic in its nature; with constant communication and evaluation of progress, decisions can be taken to either take a step forward or back. The framework is developed to assist operators and producers, policymakers, and other stakeholders in assessing and managing risks of multi-use at sea.

Valuing the Flood Risk Reduction Benefits of Florida’s Mangroves

Narayan S, Thomas C, Matthewman J, Shepard CC, Geselbracht L, Nzerem K, Beck MW. Valuing the Flood Risk Reduction Benefits of Florida’s Mangroves. UC Santa Cruz and the Nature Conservancy; 2019. Available from: https://news.ucsc.edu/2019/10/mangroves.html
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Report

In a nutshell,

  • We used an insurance industry catastrophe model from RMS to quantify the flood reduction benefits of mangroves across Florida
  • Annually, across multiple storms, mangroves reduce flood damages by 25.5% to properties behind them in Collier County
  • During Hurricane Irma, over 626,000 people living behind mangrove forests saw reduced flooding in census tracts across Florida
  • During Hurricane Irma, mangroves averted $1.5 billion in surge-related flood damages to properties; which represents a 25% savings in counties with mangroves
  • Every hectare of mangroves with properties behind them provided, on average, $7,500 in risk reduction benefits during Hurricane Irma

Marine Heatwave, Harmful Algae Blooms and an Extensive Fish Kill Event During 2013 in South Australia

Roberts SD, Van Ruth PD, Wilkinson C, Bastianello SS, Bansemer MS. Marine Heatwave, Harmful Algae Blooms and an Extensive Fish Kill Event During 2013 in South Australia. Frontiers in Marine Science [Internet]. 2019 ;6. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00610/full?utm_source=F-AAE&utm_medium=EMLF&utm_campaign=MRK_1132190_45_Marine_20191024_arts_A
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

In 2013, South Australia experienced unusually high and variable water temperatures (5°C above the historic average), with a peak sea surface temperature of approximately 27°C over a wide geographic area covering both gulfs and shelf waters. Over the same period and similar geographic area, a prolonged and widespread marine mortality event occurred. From January to May 2013, low level rates of incidental morbidity and mortality of abalone (Haliotis rubra and H. laevigata) and at least 29 fish species were observed. Mortalities were geographically extensive from Port MacDonnell on the South Coast of South Australia to Point Drummond on Eyre Peninsula, and including two gulf systems, spanning approximately 2,900 km of coastline. Mortalities were investigated using gross pathology, histopathology, bacterial culture and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) techniques. Water samples were collected to assess water column nutrient status and phytoplankton biomass levels and community composition. High nutrient concentrations were suggestive of high phytoplankton productivity, with conditions conducive to diatom blooms. A harmful (abrasive) diatom, Chaetoceros coarctatus, was observed in higher concentrations than the historical average. Observed fish mortalities were restricted to a small proportion of the populations and primarily comprised of temperate small-bodied benthic inshore species. Fish histopathology was suggestive of prolonged stress (melanomacrophage aggregation in spleens and kidneys), physical gill damage (focal gill lesions likely caused by C. coarctatus) and lethal bacterial septicaemia. Infectious and notifiable diseases were ruled out in all fish and abalone samples. Abalone mortalities were also restricted to a small proportion of the population with thermal stress a likely contributing factor that resulted in terminal secondary bacterial infections. A marine heatwave event, which promoted blooms of algae, including C. coarctatus, was likely the primary cause of widespread marine mortalities throughout South Australia in 2013. With marine heatwaves projected to increase in frequency, duration and spatial extent, this investigation demonstrated that most at risk will be temperate species in shallow water habitats already at their upper thermal tolerance limits, particularly those with high site fidelity. This should be considered in future climate proofing strategies, including risk and impact assessments underpinning the management of marine resources, fisheries, aquaculture and ecotourism.

Advancing Coastal Risk Reduction Science and Implementation by Accounting for Climate, Ecosystems, and People

Silver JM, Arkema KK, Griffin RM, Lashley B, Lemay M, Maldonado S, Moultrie SH, Ruckelshaus M, Schill S, Thomas A, et al. Advancing Coastal Risk Reduction Science and Implementation by Accounting for Climate, Ecosystems, and People. Frontiers in Marine Science [Internet]. 2019 ;6. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00556/full
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

Climate change and population growth are degrading coastal ecosystems and increasing risks to communities and infrastructure. Reliance on seawalls and other types of hardened shorelines is unsustainable in an era of rising seas, given the costs to build and maintain these structures and their unintended consequences on ecosystems. This is especially true for communities that depend on coastal and marine ecosystems for livelihoods and sustenance. Protecting and restoring coral reefs and coastal forests can be lower cost, sustainable alternatives for shoreline protection. However, decision-makers often lack basic information about where and under what conditions ecosystems reduce risk to coastal hazards and who would benefit. To better understand where to prioritize ecosystems for coastal protection, we assessed risk reduction provided by coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass along the entire coast of The Bahamas, under current and future climate scenarios. Modeled results show that the population most exposed to coastal hazards would more than double with future sea-level rise and more than triple if ecosystems were lost or degraded. We also found that ecosystem-based risk reduction differs across islands due to variation in a suite of ecological, physical, and social variables. On some populated islands, like Grand Bahama and Abaco, habitats provide protection to disproportionately large numbers of people compared to the rest of the country. Risk reduction provided by ecosystems is also evident for several sparsely populated, remote coastal communities, which in some cases, have large elderly populations. The results from our analyses were critical for engaging policy-makers in discussions about employing natural and nature-based features for coastal resilience. After hurricanes Joaquin and Matthew hit The Bahamas in 2016 and 2017, our assessment of coastal risk reduction and the multiple benefits provided by coastal ecosystems helped pave the way for an innovative loan from the Inter-American Development Bank to the Government of The Bahamas to invest in mangrove restoration for coastal resilience. This work serves as an example for other regions and investors aiming to use assessments of ecosystem services to inform financing of natural and nature-based approaches for coastal resilience and climate adaptation.

Integrated Risk Assessment for the Blue Economy

Hodgson EE, Essington TE, Samhouri JF, Allison EH, Bennett NJ, Bostrom A, Cullen AC, Kasperski S, Levin PS, Poe MR. Integrated Risk Assessment for the Blue Economy. Frontiers in Marine Science [Internet]. 2019 ;6. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2019.00609/full
Freely available?: 
Yes
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

With the anticipated boom in the ‘blue economy’ and associated increases in industrialization across the world’s oceans, new and complex risks are being introduced to ocean ecosystems. As a result, conservation and resource management increasingly look to factor in potential interactions among the social, ecological and economic components of these systems. Investigation of these interactions requires interdisciplinary frameworks that incorporate methods and insights from across the social and biophysical sciences. Risk assessment methods, which have been developed across numerous disciplines and applied to various real-world settings and problems, provide a unique connection point for cross-disciplinary engagement. However, research on risk is often conducted in distinct spheres by experts whose focus is on narrow sources or outcomes of risk. Movement toward a more integrated treatment of risk to ensure a balanced approach to developing and managing ocean resources requires cross-disciplinary engagement and understanding. Here, we provide a primer on risk assessment intended to encourage the development and implementation of integrated risk assessment processes in the emerging blue economy. First, we summarize the dominant framework for risk in the ecological/biophysical sciences. Then, we discuss six key insights from the long history of risk research in the social sciences that can inform integrated assessments of risk: (1) consider the subjective nature of risk, (2) understand individual social and cultural influences on risk perceptions, (3) include diverse expertise, (4) consider the social scales of analysis, (5) incorporate quantitative and qualitative approaches, and (6) understand interactions and feedbacks within systems. Finally, we show how these insights can be incorporated into risk assessment and management, and apply them to a case study of whale entanglements in fishing gear off the United States west coast.

Quantitative oil spill risk from offshore fields in the Bohai Sea, China

Guo W, Zhang S, Wu G. Quantitative oil spill risk from offshore fields in the Bohai Sea, China. Science of The Total Environment [Internet]. 2019 ;688:494 - 504. Available from: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969719327998
Freely available?: 
No
Summary available?: 
No
Type: Journal Article

The oil spill risk in the environments surrounding the Bohai Sea is aggravated by increasing marine petroleum exploitation. There is a growing need to assess the risk of oil pollution in sensitive marine areas and coastlines. Both the recurrence frequency of spill accidents and the duration of exposure in marine areas and coastal shorelines are considered in our statistical model, which consists of a probabilistic oil spill model used to simulate various oil spill scenarios at twenty oil fields in the Bohai Sea based on high-resolution oceanographic, meteorological, and geomorphological data. The statistical results of the risk to marine areas integrate the probability of pollution in marine areas, oil slick thickness, and duration of water surface covered by a floating slick. The coastal risk index includes the probability of a shoreline hit, average mass of stranding oil, and time of oil beaching. The spatial distributions of environmental triggering factors and coastal/marine vulnerability are merged, and a map of the oil spill risk in the Bohai Sea is presented, which is useful for contingency planning and the assessment of environmental risk of marine petroleum exploitation.

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