Fish to 2030: Prospects for fisheries and aquaculture

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Greetings OpenChannels Community Members,

The World Bank has produced a new report, Fish to 2030: Prospects for fisheries and aquaculture, which you may download for free using the link below. It addresses, "1) health of global capture fisheries; 2) the role of aquaculture in filling the global fish supply - demand gap and potentially reducing the pressure on capture fisheries; and 3) implications of changes in the global fish markets on fish consumption, especially in China and Sub-Saharan Africa."

Happy reading!
-Nick Wehner, OpenChannels Project Manager


Table of Contents

Marine Protected Areas

Global conservation outcomes depend on marine protected areas with five key features. Graham J. Edgar, Rick D. Stuart-Smith, Trevor J. Willis, Stuart Kininmonth, Susan C. Baker, Stuart Banks, Neville S. Barrett, Mikel A. Becerro, Anthony T. F. Bernard, Just Berkhout, Colin D. Buxton, Stuart J. Campbell, Antonia T. Cooper, Marlene Davey, Sophie C. Edgar, Günter Försterra, David E. Galván, Alejo J. Irigoyen, David J. Kushner, Rodrigo Moura, P. Ed Parnell, Nick T. Shears, German Soler, Elisabeth M. A. Strain & Russell J. Thomson. Nature (2014) doi:10.1038/nature13022.

Planning and Management

Free: Framework for Ocean Planning in the Northeast United States. Ocean Planning in the Northeast, February 2014 (the Northeast Regional Planning Body).

Free: Mapping Reef Fish and the Seascape: Using Acoustics and Spatial Modeling to Guide Coastal Management. Costa B, Taylor JC, Kracker L, Battista T, Pittman S (2014) PLoS ONE 9(1): e85555. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0085555.

Fisheries and Aquaculture

Free: Fish to 2030: prospects for fisheries and aquaculture. World Bank. 2013. Agriculture and environmental services discussion paper ; no. 3. Washington DC ; World Bank Group.

Ocean Acidification

Free: Ocean Warming, More than Acidification, Reduces Shell Strength in a Commercial Shellfish Species during Food Limitation. Mackenzie CL, Ormondroyd GA, Curling SF, Ball RJ, Whiteley NM, et al. (2014) PLoS ONE 9(1): e86764. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0086764.

Free: Temperature Modulates Coccolithophorid Sensitivity of Growth, Photosynthesis and Calcification to Increasing Seawater pCO2. Sett S, Bach LT, Schulz KG, Koch-Klavsen S, Lebrato M, et al. (2014) PLoS ONE 9(2): e88308. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0088308.

Free: Acclimatization of the Crustose Coralline Alga Porolithon onkodes to Variable pCO2. Johnson MD, Moriarty VW, Carpenter RC (2014) PLoS ONE 9(2): e87678. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087678.

Free: Shifting from Right to Left: The Combined Effect of Elevated CO2 and Temperature on Behavioural Lateralization in a Coral Reef Fish. Domenici P, Allan BJM, Watson S-A, McCormick MI, Munday PL (2014) PLoS ONE 9(1): e87969. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0087969.


Global conservation outcomes depend on marine protected areas with five key features

In line with global targets agreed under the Convention on Biological Diversity, the number of marine protected areas (MPAs) is increasing rapidly, yet socio-economic benefits generated by MPAs remain difficult to predict and under debate. MPAs often fail to reach their full potential as a consequence of factors such as illegal harvesting, regulations that legally allow detrimental harvesting, or emigration of animals outside boundaries because of continuous habitat or inadequate size of reserve. Here we show that the conservation benefits of 87 MPAs investigated worldwide increase exponentially with the accumulation of five key features: no take, well enforced, old (>10 years), large (>100 km2), and isolated by deep water or sand. Using effective MPAs with four or five key features as an unfished standard, comparisons of underwater survey data from effective MPAs with predictions based on survey data from fished coasts indicate that total fish biomass has declined about two-thirds from historical baselines as a result of fishing. Effective MPAs also had twice as many large (>250 mm total length) fish species per transect, five times more large fish biomass, and fourteen times more shark biomass than fished areas. Most (59%) of the MPAs studied had only one or two key features and were not ecologically distinguishable from fished sites. Our results show that global conservation targets based on area alone will not optimize protection of marine biodiversity. More emphasis is needed on better MPA design, durable management and compliance to ensure that MPAs achieve their desired conservation value.


Framework for Ocean Planning in the Northeast United States

This document provides the overall framework for ocean planning in the Northeast United States. Its intent is to provide details on the overall approach and work of the Northeast Regional Planning Body (NE RPB), the formal entity charged with developing the regional ocean plan for the Northeast pursuant to the National Ocean Policy as described below.


Mapping Reef Fish and the Seascape: Using Acoustics and Spatial Modeling to Guide Coastal Management

Reef fish distributions are patchy in time and space with some coral reef habitats supporting higher densities (i.e., aggregations) of fish than others. Identifying and quantifying fish aggregations (particularly during spawning events) are often top priorities for coastal managers. However, the rapid mapping of these aggregations using conventional survey methods (e.g., non-technical SCUBA diving and remotely operated cameras) are limited by depth, visibility and time. Acoustic sensors (i.e., splitbeam and multibeam echosounders) are not constrained by these same limitations, and were used to concurrently map and quantify the location, density and size of reef fish along with seafloor structure in two, separate locations in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Reef fish aggregations were documented along the shelf edge, an ecologically important ecotone in the region. Fish were grouped into three classes according to body size, and relationships with the benthic seascape were modeled in one area using Boosted Regression Trees. These models were validated in a second area to test their predictive performance in locations where fish have not been mapped. Models predicting the density of large fish (≥29 cm) performed well (i.e., AUC = 0.77). Water depth and standard deviation of depth were the most influential predictors at two spatial scales (100 and 300 m). Models of small (≤11 cm) and medium (12–28 cm) fish performed poorly (i.e., AUC = 0.49 to 0.68) due to the high prevalence (45–79%) of smaller fish in both locations, and the unequal prevalence of smaller fish in the training and validation areas. Integrating acoustic sensors with spatial modeling offers a new and reliable approach to rapidly identify fish aggregations and to predict the density large fish in un-surveyed locations. This integrative approach will help coastal managers to prioritize sites, and focus their limited resources on areas that may be of higher conservation value.


Fish to 2030: prospects for fisheries and aquaculture

This report analyzes global prospects for fisheries and aquaculture. The World Bank Group (WBG) Agriculture Action Plan 2013-15 summarizes critical challenges facing the global food and agriculture sector. An ever-increasing global population necessitates adequate food and nutrition for the growing population through increased production and reduced waste. Production increase must occur in a context where resources necessary for food production, such as land and water, are even scarcer in a more crowded world, and thus the sector needs to be far more efficient in utilizing productive resources. The important issues addressed herein are: 1) health of global capture fisheries; 2) the role of aquaculture in filling the global fish supply - demand gap and potentially reducing the pressure on capture fisheries; and 3) implications of changes in the global fish markets on fish consumption, especially in China and Sub-Saharan Africa.


Ocean Warming, More than Acidification, Reduces Shell Strength in a Commercial Shellfish Species during Food Limitation

Ocean surface pH levels are predicted to fall by 0.3–0.4 pH units by the end of the century and are likely to coincide with an increase in sea surface temperature of 2–4°C. The combined effect of ocean acidification and warming on the functional properties of bivalve shells is largely unknown and of growing concern as the shell provides protection from mechanical and environmental challenges. We examined the effects of near-future pH (ambient pH –0.4 pH units) and warming (ambient temperature +4°C) on the shells of the commercially important bivalve, Mytilus edulis when fed for a limited period (4–6 h day−1). After six months exposure, warming, but not acidification, significantly reduced shell strength determined as reductions in the maximum load endured by the shells. However, acidification resulted in a reduction in shell flex before failure. Reductions in shell strength with warming could not be explained by alterations in morphology, or shell composition but were accompanied by reductions in shell surface area, and by a fall in whole-body condition index. It appears that warming has an indirect effect on shell strength by re-allocating energy from shell formation to support temperature-related increases in maintenance costs, especially as food supply was limited and the mussels were probably relying on internal energy reserves. The maintenance of shell strength despite seawater acidification suggests that biomineralisation processes are unaffected by the associated changes in CaCO3 saturation levels. We conclude that under near-future climate change conditions, ocean warming will pose a greater risk to shell integrity in M. edulis than ocean acidification when food availability is limited.


Temperature Modulates Coccolithophorid Sensitivity of Growth, Photosynthesis and Calcification to Increasing Seawater pCO2

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to impact pelagic ecosystem functioning in the near future by driving ocean warming and acidification. While numerous studies have investigated impacts of rising temperature and seawater acidification on planktonic organisms separately, little is presently known on their combined effects. To test for possible synergistic effects we exposed two coccolithophore species, Emiliania huxleyi and Gephyrocapsa oceanica, to a CO2 gradient ranging from ~0.5–250 µmol kg−1 (i.e. ~20–6000 µatm pCO2) at three different temperatures (i.e. 10, 15, 20°C for E. huxleyi and 15, 20, 25°C for G. oceanica). Both species showed CO2-dependent optimum-curve responses for growth, photosynthesis and calcification rates at all temperatures. Increased temperature generally enhanced growth and production rates and modified sensitivities of metabolic processes to increasing CO2. CO2 optimum concentrations for growth, calcification, and organic carbon fixation rates were only marginally influenced from low to intermediate temperatures. However, there was a clear optimum shift towards higher CO2 concentrations from intermediate to high temperatures in both species. Our results demonstrate that the CO2 concentration where optimum growth, calcification and carbon fixation rates occur is modulated by temperature. Thus, the response of a coccolithophore strain to ocean acidification at a given temperature can be negative, neutral or positive depending on that strain's temperature optimum. This emphasizes that the cellular responses of coccolithophores to ocean acidification can only be judged accurately when interpreted in the proper eco-physiological context of a given strain or species. Addressing the synergistic effects of changing carbonate chemistry and temperature is an essential step when assessing the success of coccolithophores in the future ocean.


Acclimatization of the Crustose Coralline Alga Porolithon onkodes to Variable pCO2

Ocean acidification (OA) has important implications for the persistence of coral reef ecosystems, due to potentially negative effects on biomineralization. Many coral reefs are dynamic with respect to carbonate chemistry, and experience fluctuations in pCO2 that exceed OA projections for the near future. To understand the influence of dynamic pCO2 on an important reef calcifier, we tested the response of the crustose coralline alga Porolithon onkodes to oscillating pCO2. Individuals were exposed to ambient (400 µatm), high (660 µatm), or variable pCO2 (oscillating between 400/660 µatm) treatments for 14 days. To explore the potential for coralline acclimatization, we collected individuals from low and high pCO2 variability sites (upstream and downstream respectively) on a back reef characterized by unidirectional water flow in Moorea, French Polynesia. We quantified the effects of treatment on algal calcification by measuring the change in buoyant weight, and on algal metabolism by conducting sealed incubations to measure rates of photosynthesis and respiration. Net photosynthesis was higher in the ambient treatment than the variable treatment, regardless of habitat origin, and there was no effect on respiration or gross photosynthesis. Exposure to high pCO2 decreased P. onkodes calcification by >70%, regardless of the original habitat. In the variable treatment, corallines from the high variability habitat calcified 42% more than corallines from the low variability habitat. The significance of the original habitat for the coralline calcification response to variable, high pCO2 indicates that individuals existing in dynamic pCO2 habitats may be acclimatized to OA within the scope of in situ variability. These results highlight the importance of accounting for natural pCO2 variability in OA manipulations, and provide insight into the potential for plasticity in habitat and species-specific responses to changing ocean chemistry.


Shifting from Right to Left: The Combined Effect of Elevated CO2 and Temperature on Behavioural Lateralization in a Coral Reef Fish

Recent studies have shown that elevated CO2 can affect the behaviour of larval and juvenile fishes. In particular, behavioural lateralization, an expression of brain functional asymmetries, is affected by elevated CO2 in both coral reef and temperate fishes. However, the potentially interacting effects of rising temperatures and CO2 on lateralization are unknown. Here, we tested the combined effect of near-future elevated-CO2 concentrations (930 µatm) and temperature variation on behavioural lateralization of a marine damselfish, Pomacentrus wardi. Individuals exposed to one of four treatments (two CO2 levels and two temperatures) were observed in a detour test where they made repeated decisions about turning left or right. Individuals exposed to current CO2 and ambient temperature levels showed a significant right-turning bias at the population level. This biased was reversed (i.e. to the left side) in fish exposed to the elevated-CO2 treatment. Increased temperature attenuated this effect, resulting in lower values of relative lateralization. Consequently, rising temperature and elevated CO2 may have different and interactive effects on behavioural lateralization and therefore future studies on the effect of climate change on brain functions need to consider both these critical variables in order to assess the potential consequences for the ecological interactions of marine fishes.